Tangani Nabri says farmers in Papua New Guinea used to know the best time to plant their crops. But not anymore.
Mr Nabri, a trainer with the PNG in Agriculture Development Foundation (ADF), works with farmers in the hills near Lae in PNG to help build resilience and modernise their farming practices.
"Long ago, during the time of our ancestors, the rainy season started from September and comes up to May," he told the ABC's Pacific program.
"But, these days, compared to what our grandparents told us, this has changed."
Maria Linibi, the founder and president of the ADF, said local farmers were sharing this same story.
"They're saying that weather is unpredictable," she said.
With up to 85 per cent of the population involved in agriculture, PNG is especially vulnerable to climate events.
In Lae, a drought has only just broken with the arrival of much-needed rain, but the devastating effects linger.
"We’ve had about 12 months of drought," Ms Linibi said.
"Erap area used to be the banana-producing location in Lae.
"Every evening, you would see truckloads … about three or four of them filled with bananas. Each day for the last many months, we've not seen one single truck."
Waterholes dried up, and some people were left without enough food.
"We have people who are landless; they've been coming in and stealing because there's a drought, they're hungry, so they come in and steal at night," Ms Linibi said.
"So, we've lost most of our planting materials as well ... that's how bad it is."
Now scientists are predicting an El Niño system — a cyclical weather event that occurs over the Pacific and surrounding countries — is likely to develop later this year.
This means less rain for Papua New Guinea and likely even more drought.
"The droughts are coming, and what do we do?" Ms Linibi asked.
The impacts of El Niño will be felt across the region in different ways.
While drier weather can be expected for much of the Pacific, some areas like Kiribati and Tuvalu historically receive higher rainfall during El Niño.
Robson Tigona, a lecturer in environmental science at the University of Vanuatu, said El Niño was a normal climate phenomenon in the Pacific.
"If we have an El Niño event this year [in] Vanuatu, New Caledonia, Fiji, Solomon Islands, Tonga, southern Cook Islands, there will be a drop in rainfall and then the opposite will happen in Tuvalu and Kiribati," he said.
"So during El Niño, we're expecting below-normal rainfall in Vanuatu, for example, but in Tuvalu and Kiribati, we're expecting high rainfall."
If an El Niño were to occur this year, it would "increase the activity of tropical cyclones in the Pacific region", he added.
El Niño could spell disaster after cyclones
In Vanuatu, cyclones, not drought, have left farmers and food supplies vulnerable.
Two cyclones hit the country last month, causing widespread damage.
"I planted some cassava, banana with sweet potato, small cucumbers … but the cyclone that came spoiled everything," said Ruth Yowko, a farmer from the Teouma Valley in Efate Island Vanuatu.
Moses John Amos, director-general of the Ministry of Agriculture Vanuatu, said 80 per cent of the people who lived in local communities relied on root crop agriculture.
If an El Niño does develop, drier weather could delay the country's recovery efforts and cause food shortages.
"If we have an El Niño, it will negatively impact cultivation of any replanting program that the ministry will be carrying out," Mr Amos said.
The need for drought-resilient crops
Experts in Vanuatu said the government needed to invest in infrastructure and education to build resilience against a changing climate.
"Global warming will increase the frequency and intensity of El Niño as well as La Nina," Mr Tigona said.
"We need proper water supply systems in place, good rainwater harvesting systems ... we need to promote drought resilient crops."
In the face of extreme weather, Hannington Tate Tamala from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation said ensuring resilient food production was important.
"We should start looking at the crops which are resilient, and local varieties that are available," he said.
"Wild yam is a good example of a resilient crop because it will be under the ground.
"I know when the cyclone comes, [it] removes all the vines, but it's still there. And then it will still grow, and it will still supply food."
Changing weather patterns
As the weather patterns of her ancestors change, Ms Linibi and her team are preparing for the future.
"[The government] have to put money into research," she said.
"And allow farmers to know how to … preserve their seeds … because otherwise, it's chaotic."
