Economists see U.S. inflation running hotter through next year than they did a month ago and recession odds continue to mount against a backdrop of rising borrowing costs.
Projections for the personal consumption expenditures price index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric — were raised for each quarter of 2023. Still, price pressures are seen cooling sharply over the course of the year. By the final three months, the PCE price index will average 2.8% in the wake of sluggish economic activity and higher interest rates.
The figures are based on the median forecast of 65 economists in a Bloomberg survey conducted Nov. 4-11. Roughly half of the responses were collected prior to the Nov. 10 release of the consumer price index, which showed inflation rose at a slower-than-expected pace in October.
