France will beat Spain to lift the World Cup trophy and five-times winners Brazil are expected to be the biggest flops, according to a Reuters survey of economists who said football was still harder to call than inflation.
For 160 respondents from around the globe, the poll conducted once every four years is a welcome break from their macroeconomic forecasting in an era of wars, energy shocks and debates over “transitory” versus persistent inflation.
Their brief this time is the biggest World Cup yet — a 48-team tournament spanning 104 matches across the United States, Canada and Mexico — the first to be staged in three countries.
France drew 35% of the vote in the poll, conducted between May 11 and June 5, to add a third star to their badge, edging out Spain on 31% — broadly in line with betting platforms like Polymarket — a result that would return Europe to the pinnacle of international football.
Didier Deschamps of France would become the first coach since Italy’s Vittorio Pozzo in 1938 to win two World Cups — and the only one to do so after lifting the trophy as a player, in 1998.
Argentina, defending champions and top of the current Fifa world rankings, Portugal and England rounded out the top five choices.
“After the disappointment of the 2022 final, France looks well equipped to go one better this time,” said Cathal Kennedy, senior economist at RBC and based in London.
“The squad retains a number of members of the team that reached the final who are now reaching the peak of their careers, complemented by the emergence of some members of the Paris St Germain side.”
“Added to that, they should have a well-rested Kylian Mbappe to call on for the tournament.”
Top honours for Mbappe
Mbappe, who enjoyed another prolific season at Real Madrid, was the poll’s pick for both the Golden Ball, awarded to the tournament’s best player, and the Golden Boot for top scorer.
He only just beat England captain Harry Kane, the European Golden Shoe winner after a career-best 61-goal season with Bayern Munich.
There’s likely another milestone within reach for both.
Mbappe and Kane, with 12 and eight World Cup goals respectively, are among those chasing German Miroslav Klose’s all-time record of 16, along with Lionel Messi who has 13.
Two respondents picked Japan, one Mexico and one Morocco — any of which would make for a World Cup fairytale — among the 8% who said loyalty had guided their choices. An overwhelming 73% said they went with gut feeling.
“As with any model, the forecast was adjusted with a heavy dose of gut feel!” quipped Shannon Bold, senior economist at the Bureau of Economic Research in Johannesburg.
Around 20% relied on data and models for their predictions.
“The macroeconomists sat around together and created a house view,” said Claudio Govender at RMB.
But for Brazil, the poll view was bleak.
Even Carlo Ancelotti’s arrival as coach has failed to lift confidence, with nearly a third picking the Selecao — quarter-final losers to Croatia in 2022 — as the biggest football powerhouse likely to disappoint, followed by England and Germany.
Norway, powered by Manchester City striker Erling Haaland, may supply the drama — picked by 21% as the underdogs most likely to surprise, ahead of Japan on 15%.
The search for breakout stars was wide open. Respondents scattered their votes across 46 names but Spain’s 18-year-old forward Lamine Yamal topped the list.
France’s Mike Maignan, Argentina’s Emiliano Martinez and Spain’s Unai Simon were among the favourites for the Golden Glove, awarded to the tournament’s best goalkeeper.
Off the pitch, organisers face a daunting logistical test as millions of fans prepare to descend on North America, with affordability already a flashpoint. Expensive tickets, accommodation and cross-country travel have raised fears this could be the costliest World Cup yet for fans.
So much for the break from inflation.
Over 60% said 2026 inflation was still easier to forecast than football’s biggest prize — though recent years have made that a low bar.
“We know when the World Cup is going to end,” said Ozan Can Turkmen at Sekerbank in Turkey. “On the other hand, the energy supply crisis …”
