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Tiago Cardao-Pito, Assistant Professor, Universidade de Lisboa

Economists have misunderstood a key indicator – and it's a big problem

shutterstock Monster Ztudio / Shutterstock

In studies, forecasts and recommendations to governments, markets are seen as capable of processing so-called rational information. Economists claim that firms’ market prices result from rational expectation about their future monetary flows and intangible assets not accounted by bookkeeping, which, however, would enable those future monetary flows to occur.

It is quite difficult to find evidence corroborating these assertions. They rely on information about the future, which is unknown and, thus, cannot be tested at the time of the analysis.

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