The Miami Dolphins have done well through the first 15 weeks of the season, as they’ve put together a 10-4 record that has them in second place in the AFC heading into their matchup with the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday afternoon.
With only three games left in the regular season, the New York Times has a playoff simulator that gives the odds of teams making the postseason, as well as if they’ll have a bye week, host a wild-card game or be the team hosted on wild-card weekend.
Based on 240,000 simulations, the Dolphins have a 99% chance of making the postseason. With that, they have a 12% chance of being the top seed in the AFC and securing a first-round bye week. They have an 86% chance of playing on wild-card weekend (47% as the host and 39% as the visitor).
A win over the Cowboys gives Miami a 19% chance of being the first seed, but obviously, other results could make their odds better or worse.
The Dolphins’ chances of taking the top spot in the conference fell despite their win over the New York Jets last week (dropping from 14% to 12%). They have a lot to prove over their last three weeks with three playoff/Super Bowl contenders on the schedule. If Miami wins out, they’ll pass the Baltimore Ravens and earn a first-round bye.
