July NY world sugar #11 (SBN23) on Friday closed up +0.17 (+0.66%), and Aug London white sugar #5 (SWQ23) closed up +3.40 (+0.48%).
Sugar prices Friday posted moderate gains as a weak dollar (DXY00) sparked short covering in sugar futures. However, sugar prices fell back from their best levels Friday after the Brazilian real (^USDBRL) fell to a 1-1/2 week low against the dollar. The weaker real encourages export selling from Brazil's sugar producers.
A faster pace of the Brazil sugar harvest is bearish for prices. On Thursday, sugar fell to 2-week lows on speculation dry conditions in Brazil will speed up the pace of the sugar harvest. Rural Clima Meteorlogia said little rain is expected in Brazil through the end of the month. Unica reported last Thursday that Brazil's 2023/24 sugar production through April was up +43.7% y/y at 1.531 MMT. Also, the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar rose to 41.6% from 35.3% last year.
Last month, sugar prices rallied to 11-year highs on the outlook for tighter global supplies. On Apr 26, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) cut its 2022/23 India sugar production estimate to 32.8 MMT from a Jan estimate of 34 MMT. India's Food Secretary said India might not allow additional sugar exports this year due to lower-than-expected sugar production. India has allowed only 6 MMT of sugar exports in 2022/23 after permitting 11.2 MMT in 2021/22, down -46% y/y. The ISMA on Jan 31 cut its India 2022/23 sugar export estimate to 6.1 MMT from an Oct forecast of 9 MMT. Also, the ISMA said that it sees India's sugar mills diverting 4.5-5.0 MMT of sugar to ethanol production in 2022/23. India is the world's second-largest sugar producer.
Sugar prices have support from changing weather patterns that could undercut global sugar production. Last Thursday, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center raised the likelihood of an El Nino weather pattern emerging between August and October to 94% from the 74% forecast last month. If that El Nino pattern occurs, it could bring heavy rains to Brazil and drought to India, negatively impacting sugar crop production. The last time El Nino brought dryness to sugar crops in Asia was in 2015 and 2016, which caused prices to soar.
The outlook for a sugar surplus this year is negative for sugar prices. The International Sugar Organization (ISO) said on May 4 that it expects the global 2023/24 sugar surplus to fall to +2.1 MMT from a +4.15 MMT surplus in 2022/23. ISO is projecting that global 2022/23 sugar production will climb +4.8% y/y to a record high of 180.4 MMT. Larger sugar production is expected after Conab on Apr 26 forecasted that Brazil's 2023/24 sugar output would climb +4.7% y/y to 38.8 MMT, the second most ever, as crops recover from the previous season's adverse weather.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
