The dollar index (DXY00) this morning is up by +0.06% at a 6-week high. Hawkish comments Wednesday night from Fed Governor Waller boosted the dollar when he said there’s “no rush” for the Fed to ease monetary policy. The dollar maintained moderate gains on today’s better-than-expected US economic reports, which were hawkish for Fed policy.
US weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell -2,000 to 210,000, showing a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 212,000.
US Q4 GDP was revised upward to +3.4% (q/q annualized), stronger than expectations of an unrevised 3.2%, as Q4 personal consumption was revised upward to 3.3%, stronger than expectations of an unrevised 3.0%. The Q4 core PCE price index was revised lower to +2.0% (q/q annualized), weaker than expectations of an unrevised +2.1%.
The US Mar MNI Chicago PMI unexpectedly fell -2.6 to a 10-month low of 41.4, weaker than expectations of an increase to 46.0.
US Feb pending home sales rose +1.6% m/m, slightly stronger than expectations of +1.5% m/m.
The March University of Michigan US consumer sentiment index was revised upward to a 2-1/2 year high of 79.4, stronger than expectations of an unrevised 76.5.
Fed Governor Waller said recent inflation figures were "disappointing," and in his view, "it is appropriate to reduce the overall number of rate cuts or push them further into the future in response to the recent data." He added, "I see economic output and the labor market showing continued strength while progress in reducing inflation has slowed. Because of these signs, I see no rush in taking the step of beginning to ease monetary policy."
The markets are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 10% for the next FOMC meeting on April 30-May 1 and 69% for the following meeting on June 11-12.
EUR/USD (^EURUSD) this morning is down by -0.21% at a 5-week low. Strength in the dollar today is undercutting the euro. Also, today’s Eurozone money supply report and German Feb retail sales report were dovish for ECB policy and weighed on the euro. In addition, dovish comments from ECB Governing Council member Panetta pressured the euro when he said the conditions for monetary easing are emerging.
Eurozone Feb M3 money supply rose +0.4% y/y, slightly stronger than expectations of +0.3% y/y and the biggest increase in 8 months.
German Feb retail sales unexpectedly fell -1.9% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.4% m/m increase and the biggest decline in 16 months.
German Mar unemployment rose +4,000, a smaller increase than expectations of +10,000 and a sign of a resilient labor market.
ECB Governing Council member Panetta said, "Risks for price stability have decreased, and the conditions for a monetary loosening are coming about."
Swaps are pricing in the chances for a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at 11% for its next meeting on April 11 and 97% for the following meeting on June 6.
USD/JPY (^USDJPY) this morning is down by -0.03%. The yen this morning is modestly higher on speculation that Japanese authorities may be close to intervening in currency markets to support the yen, which fell to a nearly 34-year low against the dollar on Wednesday. Today's Comments from Japanese Prime Minister Kishida echoed comments made Wednesday by Finance Minister Suzuki and top currency official Kanda when he said authorities would take the appropriate action on excessive forex moves. Higher T-note yields today are limiting gains in the yen.
Swaps are pricing in the chances for a +10 bp rate increase by the BOJ at 3% for the April 26 meeting and 7% for the following meeting on June 14.
April gold (GCJ4) this morning is up +15.5 (+0.71%), and May silver (SIK24) is up +0.008 (+0.03%). Precious metals today are moderately higher. Precious metals prices are seeing some short covering ahead of Friday’s US Feb PCE core deflator report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. The markets will be closed on Friday for the Good Friday holiday when the report will be released. Also, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are boosting safe-haven demand for precious metals after talks for a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas stalled. Silver also garnered support today after the US Q4 GDP was revised slightly higher, a positive factor for industrial metals demand.
On the negative side, today’s rally in the dollar index to a 6-week high is negative for metals. Also, Wednesday night’s comments for Fed Governor Waller were bearish for precious metals when he said there’s “no rush” for the Fed to cut interest rates. In addition, higher global bond yields today are negative for precious metals.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
