LAS VEGAS — Here are three thoughts on Dmitry Bivol’s stunning upset win over Canelo Álvarez on Saturday.
What a performance by Dmitry Bivol
Bivol was a massive underdog coming into this fight. He was the titleholder—Álvarez, the undisputed champion at 168-pounds, was moving up in weight—but few, if any, gave the relatively untested Bivol a chance against boxing’s pound-for-pound king. Yet all week Bivol expressed confidence—a quiet confidence that he had the skill set to beat Canelo. And he did.
For 12 rounds Bivol operated behind a textbook jab, firing off 418 of them (to Álvarez’s 229, per CompuBox) while throwing more power punches (292–266) than one of boxing’s heaviest hitters. Not since his first fight with Gennadiy Golovkin has Álvarez been backed up as often as he was against Bivol. When Álvarez came forward, Bivol kept his guard up. When Álvarez let up, Bivol unleashed a barrage of scoring punches. Bivol knew he needed his finest performance to win on Saturday. He delivered it.
What did we make of Canelo?
First of all, Canelo didn’t lose—Bivol beat him. But there’s a lot to unpack from Canelo’s performance. Did we see a fighter whose title reign began at 154-pounds finally reach his limit? Bivol wasn’t Canelo’s first fight at 175 pounds, but there is a big difference between a faded Sergey Kovalev and an in-his-prime Bivol, a career-long light heavyweight with a sturdy chin and true 175-pound power behind him. While there wasn’t a huge size advantage, Bivol looked and fought like the bigger fighter, forcing Álvarez to fight moving backwards for much of the fight.
Was it Álvarez’s diet? A quiet storyline coming into this fight was Álvarez’s decision to switch to a mainly vegan diet. Álvarez downplayed its significance, but he just didn’t look as strong in the ring, appearing winded in the middle rounds and unable to match Bivol’s output in the final rounds of the fight.
Again—this fight was about Dmitry Bivol. But there are a few things Canelo needs to consider moving forward as well.
Will there be a rematch?
Canelo says he wants one and Bivol is contractually obligated to give it to him. But is it the right decision? Certainly Álvarez can go into a rematch believing he can win—all three judges scored the fight 115–113 for Bivol; SI scored it 117–111 for the defending champ—but it will be as difficult a fight the second time around, if not more. Bivol now has 12 rounds of experience with Canelo’s speed and power, and will adjust accordingly.
Canelo should consider dropping back down to 168-pounds. There are marketable fights there—the shine came off a Golovkin fight on Saturday, but that’s still a big money fight, as are matchups with Jermall Charlo or David Benavidez—and it’s clear Canelo is stronger at super middleweight than light heavyweight. Álvarez is a prideful guy. He’s going to want to avenge that loss, just the second of his pro career. But make no mistake: Bivol is the real deal.
