Last Tuesday Rishi Sunak stood behind a lectern outside Downing Street and issued a grave warning. The country, he said, was in the midst of a profound economic crisis, which would mean “difficult decisions to come”. But lest anyone worry too much, he was also at pains to portray himself as a guardian of the public good. “You saw me during Covid, doing everything I could to protect people and businesses with schemes like furlough,” he said. “There are always limits, more so now than ever, but I promise you this: I will bring that same compassion to the challenges we face today.”
The exact mathematics of the government’s fiscal gap are a matter of conjecture. A fortnight ago, the reversal by the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, of most of the tax reductions proposed by Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng clawed back about £30bn, leaving a hole estimated at £40bn. Midway through last week, there were reports that things were looking slightly less dire. Then, amid continuing whispers about government departments being instructed to come up with cuts of up to 15%, rumblings from the Treasury suggested that Hunt and Sunak are “exploring” tax rises and spending savings worth £50bn a year, while hoping they could avoid economies on quite that scale. Whatever the spin, bullshit and expectations management preceding Hunt’s medium-term fiscal statement on 17 November, one thing remains clear: there will be cuts.
