The 49ers had a multi-step plan for the quarterback positon.
Step One was to trade three first-round picks to Miami for the No. 3 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. The 49ers would select their quarterback of the future with that pick.
Step Two was to trade their quarterback of the present, Jimmy Garoppolo. The idea was that Garoppolo would recoup some of that draft capital lost in the Lance trade.
But we're coming up on the one-year anniversary of Step One, and it's clear that the 49ers have completely overestimated themselves and Garoppolo.
Step Two has been totally botched.
This week, the 49ers restructured the contracts of Dee Ford, Arik Armstead, and George Kittle to create salary cap space ahead of the new league year — all teams must be under the salary cap by 1 p.m. Wednesday.
The restructurings are simple, defensible moves — such moves should have happened anyway.
Though it must be noted that Armstead's cap hits will be $24 and $26 million in 2023 and 2024, respectively, while Kittle will come in at $18 and $20 million.
The 49ers kicked the can further down the road than Garoppolo could throw it.
Two outstanding players, but still a defensive tackle and tight end.
Don't forget why the 49ers needed to kick so much salary: Garoppolo is still on this roster, with the largest cap hit of any player.
The 2022 backup quarterback — yes, you read that right — had a larger cap hit than Armstead and Kittle, Nos. 2 and 3 on the list before Wednesday morning.
But here I thought the whole point of having a starting quarterback on a rookie contract (aka Trey Lance) is that you can spend lavishly around him.
That's not happening with the 49ers, who are having to move money around to merely be cap compliant because they refuse to cut their injured, underperforming, highest-paid player.
That is indefensible team management.
The 49ers have spent a whole calendar year shopping Garoppolo to the rest of the NFL.
The 31 other teams have declared, emphatically, that they are not interested.
But instead of taking the L, cutting Garoppolo, and moving forward with some serious money to spend in free agency to help out their first-year starting quarterback, the Niners seem content to hold on to Garoppolo.
Did Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch ever learn about the sunk cost fallacy? If not, the good news is that they'll get a free economics textbook soon — they'll be a case study inside it.
Yes, this is the neediest quarterback market in recent memory, but they seem to think someone is going to come in with a serious offer for Jimmy G.
It hasn't happened to date, so it won't happen now.
Think about all the dominoes that have needed to fall before Garoppolo is the best available quarterback.
It makes sense to see if Tom Brady would return and what would happen with Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson.
The Deshaun Watson situation muddied the waters a bit, too.
But the Washington Commanders — run by a former 49ers assistant GM — chose Carson Wentz and the remainder of his ridiculous contract over Garoppolo.
The Steelers chose Mitch Trubisky over Jimmy G.
Someone is going to choose Marcus Mariota over him, too. James Winston seems to be ahead of him in line as well. Oh, and Baker Mayfield might skip to the front if he becomes available — he's also coming off shoulder surgery this offseason and he has a whole bunch of baggage, but he, like Garoppolo, is going into the final year of his contract and is nearly $10 million cheaper.
The 49ers have been looking to recoup serious value for Garoppolo — a Day Two pick at worst, I've been told. It's simply not in the cards. It never really has been. To my knowledge, no team has to come close to formally putting that kind of pick on the table.
In this crazy game of musical quarterback chairs, Garoppolo is going to be the only one left standing, soon.
What's the 49ers' plan then?
It sure sounds like they're going to try to pull a "Sam Bradford" which is to say that they have no real plan at all — they're just looking for misfortune to befall another team. To the Niners, that'd be lucky.
In 2016, the Vikings' starting quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater had a freak, season-ending knee injury in practice that nearly required amputation.
Right before the start of the season, the Eagles traded Sam Bradford to Minnesota for a first-round draft pick.
At the time, it was a coup for the Eagles, who had just drafted Wentz No. 2 overall, having sent two first-round picks and a second to the Browns to move up in the draft to select him. It was immediately seen as an overpay by the Vikings, but they were emotional and desperate.
As such, the Sam Bradford trade has been cited around the league for a half-decade as a cautionary tale.
It's cemented itself as the exception to the rule in the NFL.
Now the 49ers are trying to break that cement. It won't happen.
A better use might be hitting our heads against it.
