The Detroit Lions finished last in the NFC North each of the past four seasons with a combined 17-36-2 record. Despite the appearance of a bottom-tier offense, the Lions have some exciting players entering 2022. RB D’Andre Swift has the potential to be one of the top receiving backs in the league while offering explosiveness and scoring in the run game. WR Amon-Ra St. Brown developed into a high-volume beast late last season, and follow through should be expected in his second season. In addition, the combination of WRs D.J. Chark and Jameson Williams improves Detroit’s deep passing game. TE T.J. Hockenson is a developing edge, leaving the ceiling of this offense in the hands of QB Jared Goff.
Offense
Game scores led to the Lions throwing the ball 58.1% of the time last season. They have depth across the board at the receiver positions, but Detroit needs to run the ball better to control the clock.
Quarterbacks
Jared Goff – click here for fantasy projections
Other options: Tim Boyle, David Blough
Running Backs
The running back position has been more active in the passing game in back-to-back years. Backs received 27.8% of the team’s completions last year, leading to three-year highs in catches (110), receiving yards (760) and targets (136). Their running backs gained 2,540 combined yards with 15 scores on 517 touches.
D'Andre Swift – click here for fantasy projections
Jamaal Williams
The Lions used Williams 179 times over his 13 games (13.8 per week). He set a career-high in rushing yards (601) while showing weakness in yards per carry (3.9) and yards per catch (6.0). He missed four games with thigh, hip and COVID-19 issues. Williams posted his best output in Week 1 (110 combined yards with one touchdown and eight catches). Detroit gave him three targets or fewer in 11 of his final 12 matchups while scoring less than 10 fantasy points in PPR leagues in nine games.
Fantasy outlook: Williams should get about 12 touches per game, but he will be a challenging starter as an RB2 or flex player in PPR leagues. His role in the passing game has a diminishing ceiling if D’Andre Swift is healthy. Even with a favorable ADP (166) in the early draft season in the NFFC, I would only be interested in drafting him as a handcuff to Swift. Even with a possible starting role at times, the Lions will rotate in a second back. At best, 700 combined yards with short touchdowns and about 25 catches.
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Jermar Jefferson
Over three seasons at Oregon State, Jefferson gained 3,222 combined yards with 29 touches and 43 catches. His best season came in 2018 (239/1,380/12 with 25 catches for 147 yards). In 2020, COVID limited his year to six games (133/858/7), which gave him a chance at 1,800 combined yards with 14 touchdowns and 18 catches.
Jefferson has a power running style that works better when seeing daylight at the line of scrimmage. His flow and vision create wins, but dead ends leave him with no escape routes. He needs volume of chances to get his engine warmed up. Jefferson should bring closing value with the ability to make defenders miss in the open field. His pass protection looks ahead of his pass catching.
He gained 97 combined yards in his rookie season with two touchdowns and four catches on 19 touches. Jefferson missed some development time with an ankle injury.
Fantasy outlook: Jefferson would be the power runner replacement with short-yardage and goal-line value if Jamaal Williams has an injury. He will be found in the free-agent pool in almost all leagues this draft season.
Other Options: Craig Reynolds, Godwin Igwebuike, Greg Bell
Wide Receivers
The Lions’ wide receivers finished in a tight range in catches (200, 202 and 205) and targets (330, 315 and 315) over the previous three seasons. Unfortunately, their wideouts had a sharp regression in receiving yards and touchdowns over this span. In 2022, I expect an improvement in all areas.
Amon-Ra St. Brown – click here for fantasy projections
D.J. Chark
Coming out of college, Chark had a minimal resume (66/1,351/6) in the receiving game over three seasons.
In 2019 with the Jaguars, Chark proved to be a value on draft day or a quick waiver wire pickup after his fast start to the year over five games (27/485/5 on 37 targets). Chark flashed in Week 1 (4/146/1) while offering two other impact games (8/164/2 and 8/104/2). However, over his final five starts, he only caught 22 passes for 212 yards with no touchdowns.
After his breakout season (73/1,008/8), Chark struggled to make an impact in seven starts in 2020 (3/16, 1/26, 4/56, 4/41, 2/41, 2/16, 4/53) while also missing three contests with chest, ankle and ribs issues. His best play came in two matchups (8/95/2 and 7/146/1). Last year, Chark played well in two of his first three matchups (3/86/1 and 3/49/1), but his season ended in Week 4 with a broken ankle.
Fantasy outlook: Chark gained over 20 yards on 30 of his 133 catches (22.6%) over the past three seasons while scoring 15 times in 32 games. His ADP (147) in the NFFC in mid-June prices him as the 55th wide receiver drafted. He is a viable WR5 in PPR formats with a chance to catch 65 passes for 850 yards with 5-7 touchdowns.
Jameson Williams
Ohio State gave Williams only 15 catches for 266 yards and three scores in his freshman and sophomore seasons, leading to him transferring to Alabama. The change of scenery unlocked a beast of a season (79/1,572/15). Williams had four explosive showings (10/160/1, 6/158/3, 8/190/3, 7/184/2) over a five-game stretch. From Weeks 10-13, he gained an impressive 25.0 yards per catch (23/575/8). Unfortunately, Williams suffered a torn ACL in his left knee in early January.
The excitement of Williams as a home-run threat is real. He blows by deep coverage with the wheels to turn a short pass into a long scoring play. His challenge is improving his release and developing his usage over the short areas of the field. Williams brings excellent hands while needing to get stronger. Two of the top five receivers in this year’s draft class played in front of him at Ohio State.
Fantasy Outlook: I’m never a fan of players coming off significant injuries. I expect him to be slow out of the gate, but Williams does have enough time to get almost healthy by the start of the season. Fantasy drafters rate him virtually the same as D.J. Chark in the NFFC (ADP – 145) as they coin flip over the Lions’ best WR2 option. Until I have a better timetable of his return date, I’m starting his projections at 50 catches for 750 yards with a handful of scores.
Other Options: Quintez Cephus, Josh Reynolds, Kalif Raymond, Trinity Benson
Tight Ends
A late-season injury to T.J. Hockenson led to a step back in tight end production for the Lions. They gained only 9.6 yards per catch with about 20% of the team’s completions. However, Detriot has improved wide receiver depth plus their running back position commands a high number of targets. Any growth in tight catches in 2022 will come from improvement in Detroit’s overall offense.
T.J. Hockenson
After setting career-highs in all areas in 2020 (67/723/6 on 101 targets), Hockenson busted out of the gate last season over the first two weeks (8/97/1 and 8/66/1). Defenses shut him down over the next three games (2/10, 4/42, 2/22). Other than a no-catch game in Week 10 on one target, Hockenson delivered six competitive games (8/74, 6/48, 10/89, 6/51, 3/35/1, 4/49/1). A broken left thumb ended his year after Week 13.
Over his past 28 games, Hockenson had 128 catches for 1,306 yards and 10 touchdowns over 185 targets, or 11.38 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues.
Fantasy outlook: Fantasy drafters have him priced right in mid-June, as the sixth tight end in the NFFC with an ADP of 74. The debate on his value in 2022 falls on how much of his injury helped Amon-Ra St. Brown late last year, and will Hockenson regain some of those chances? Possible 75 catches for 850 yards with mid-level scoring.
Other Options: Brock Wright, James Mitchell, Devin Funchess
Kicker
The field goal job for Detriot this season looks to be a battle between Riley Patterson and Austin Seibert. The Lions scored 35 touchdowns in 2021 while creating 30 field goal chances. The winner of this kicking battle should be found in the free-agent pool in most leagues all year. A case could be made for either kicker, and Detroit should score more in 2022, leading to possible matchup value.
Coaching
The Lions signed Dan Campbell as their head coach in 2021 (3-13-1). He worked in the Dolphins system for six seasons before landing in New Orleans in 2016. He split his time over five seasons as their assistant head coach and tight ends coach. Miami gave him an interim head coaching job in 2015 (5-7).
Detroit made another change at offensive coordinator in the offseason, leading to the signing of Ben Johnson. Over the previous three seasons, he worked on the Lions’ coaching staff as their offensive quality control coach and tight ends coach. Johnson has been coaching in the NFL for 11 seasons while starting the year at age 36.
The Lions ranked 25th in points scored (325), 52 points fewer than in 2020. They also finished 22nd in offensive yards.
Aaron Glenn returns for his second season as Detroit’s defensive coordinator. His path through the coaching ranks also came through New Orleans as their defensive backs coach over five seasons. He was a player in the league for 15 years before starting his coaching career in 2014 with the Browns.
Detroit improved one notch in points allowed (467 – 31st) while bumping to 29th in yards allowed.
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Free Agency
The top four players signed by the Lions in the offseason were S Deshon Elliott, WR D.J. Chark, CB Mike Hughes and LB Chris Board. LB Jalen Reeves-Maybin was their highest-ranked player lost over the winter.
Draft
The bulk of the Lions’ 2022 draft was dedicated to defense – DE Aidan Hutchinson (1.2), DE Joshua Paschal (2.14), S Kerby Joseph (3.33), LB Malcolm Rodriguez (6.9), DE James Houston (6.39) and CB Chase Lucas (7.16). In addition, they added WR Jameson Williams with the 12th pick in the first round and TE James Mitchell in the fifth round.
Offensive Line
Detroit climbed to 18th in rushing yards (1,886) while averaging 25.1 rushing attempts per game. They gained 4.4 yards per carry with 12 touchdowns and 12 runs over 20 yards.
The Lions slipped to 19th in passing yards (3,884) with 23 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Detroit gained only 6.5 yards per pass attempt with 49 catches over 20 yards. Their offensive line allowed 36 sacks.
LT Taylor Decker missed eight games last year with a foot injury. When on the field, he excelled in pass protection with some help in run blocking. C Frank Ragnow is a second edge on Detroit’s offensive line, but a toe issue cost him 13 games. He projects to be an edge in all areas. RT Penei Sewell played well last year despite some struggles when asked to play left tackle. By midseason, he offered a high floor in run blocking with an edge in pass blocking.
This offensive line has three star players, two of whom missed much of 2021. The guard position is a work in progress. Overall, Detroit should run the ball better this year, and their line is trending to a top 10 ranking.
Defense
The Lions repeated their 28th ranking in rushing yards allowed (2,296) with 19 touchdowns and seven runs over 20 yards. Runners gained 4.4 yards per rush while averaging 30.5 rushes per game.
Detroit bumped to 24th in passing yards allowed (4,160) with 31 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Their defense finished with only 30 sacks while allowing 56 catches over 20 yards.
Not one starting player graded highly on the Lions’ defense in 2021. Their top young CB Jeff Okudah missed 23 games over his first two seasons after getting drafted third overall in 2020. This year, he must stay on the field and play up to his potential. Their secondary has a lot to prove. CB Tracy Walker finished with 108 tackles, leading to Detroit signing him to a three-year $25 million contract in March. Derrick Barnes looks to have the highest ceiling at linebacker. Their defensive line has upside at three positions while needing DE Aidan Hutchinson to develop into a stud pass rusher.
This defense has some pieces to push higher up in the rankings. A better offense would help control the clock and lower Detroit’s defensive exposure. I expect growth in all areas, giving the Lions a chance to be league-average with matchup value.
