MIAMI — A tropical depression formed Friday morning in the hot waters of the Caribbean, a system that the National Hurricane Center expects to significantly strengthen and make landfall somewhere in Florida around Wednesday — potentially as a Category 2 hurricane.
Exactly where is the big question and concern, with nearly the entire peninsula potentially at risk. The first cone of concern is pointed near Fort Myers, but forecasters caution that the initial track could change.
The National Hurricane Center forecasts tropical depression nine to strengthen into a tropical storm sometime Friday. If it beats out other systems in the Atlantic, it would be named Hermine.
The Air Force Reserve is set to examine the depression later Friday.
On the current track, South Florida could see winds starting to pick up Tuesday night, although that could change. At five days out, the hurricane center’s error cone is nearly 200 miles wide, and the exact forecast for where the center of the storm (or its impacts) makes landfall could shift in coming days.
Jeff George, director of Florida’s public radio emergency network, urged Floridians to keep an eye on the forecast.
“Uncertainty persists in it’s long term forecast track, but Gulf Coast residents should stay alert,” he tweeted.
Future track still uncertain
On Friday morning, Tropical Depression Nine was still battling wind shear leftover from Hurricane Fiona’s run through the Caribbean earlier this week, which forecasters said will hold it back from strengthening into a tropical storm for a little longer, maybe later Friday.
The 8 a.m. advisory from the National Hurricane Center put it about 615 miles east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and about 1,105 miles east-southeast of Havana, Cuba.
It’s expected to keep moving west in the Caribbean over the weekend as a tropical storm, until around Monday, when forecasters predict it will run straight into one of the best possible scenarios for storm strengthening: a very deep patch of hot ocean water, low storm shear and favorable steering conditions.
The hurricane center’s latest forecast suggests those conditions could propel the depression into a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds as it crosses Cuba and heads toward Florida.
However, exactly how strong would-be Hermine gets — and where the final track ends up pointing — depends a lot on where and when it hits those favorable conditions, tweeted Tomer Burg, an atmospheric science PhD student at Ohio University.
“TD 9’s intensity will also depend on its track,” he said. A more eastern track and quicker curve to the northeast means it spends less time in that strengthening environment and might put a ceiling on its intensity.
Jackson Dill, a meteorologist for WSVN news, said the two major hurricane models show two different paths once the storm nears Cuba. The Euro model calls for a faster storm that moves closer to South Florida, while the GFS predicts a slower moving storm that tends toward North Florida.
Other systems in the Atlantic
While all eyes in Florida are on soon-to-be Hermine, there are four other systems forecasters are watching in the Atlantic basin:
There are two disturbances, one of which has a high chance of turning into a tropical depression by this weekend as it moves north, parallel to the coast of west Africa. It had an 80% chance of formation through the next two to five days, as of Friday’s 8 a.m. NHC update.
The other system, in the central Atlantic, is several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and had a 20% chance of formation through the next 48 hours and a 30% chance of formation through the next five days as it drifts northwest or north over the Atlantic.
Forecasters are also continuing to monitor Hurricane Fiona, which is forecast to be a “large and powerful post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds when it approaches and moves over Nova Scotia” Friday night and Saturday. There’s also Tropical Storm Gaston, which is affecting the westernmost Azores Friday morning.
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