ANALYSIS — Halfway through the 2026 midterm cycle, the fight for the House is remarkably stable, and that’s good news for Democrats’ chances of winning the majority.
Republican efforts to pad their majority through mid-decade redistricting haven’t been as successful as projected thus far, and President Donald Trump’s first year of his second term hasn’t been as popular as Republicans had expected.
Nearly 90 years of history is on Democrats’ side. The president’s party has lost House seats in 20 of the past 22 midterm elections, and the fewest number of seats lost in those cycles was four (1962) and five (1986).
