Democrat Pat Ryan won a special election Tuesday for Hudson Valley’s 19th Congressional District, emerging victorious in a contest seen as a bellwether ahead of the fall midterms.
The Ulster County executive beat former Republican gubernatorial candidate and Dutchess County executive Marc Molinaro and will head to Washington for the remainder of the year.
The results of the unofficial New York State Board of Elections showed Ryan leading Molinaro 51.1% to 48.8%. Reuters, NBC and others called the race in Ryan’s favor around midnight.
“Pat won by running on a strong, proven track record of delivering results for New Yorkers,” State Democratic Party Chairman Jay Jacobs said in a statement. “Tonight’s election also represents a clear rejection of Republican extremism that threatens public safety, democracy, and the rights of women to make their own health care decisions.”
Ryan is replacing Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, who vacated the seat in May, to join Gov. Kathy Hochul’s administration. The 19th Congressional District covers much of the Hudson Valley and the Catskills.
Ryan is also running for a full two-year term in the recently redrawn 18th District after winning a separate Democratic primary on Tuesday. He will face off against Republican Assemblyman Colin Schmitt in the November general election.
The victory marks a major win for Democrats heading towards the midterm elections as they hope to retain control of the House and beat back any potential “red wave.”
Ryan successfully stressed the lightning rod issue of abortion during the hotly contested race following the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade earlier this year.
“This has fundamentally re-energized – certainly in this district and this community – not just Democrats, but a wide swath of folks,” Ryan told Reuters last week. “I think the ground is literally shifting now.”
Molinaro focused on economic and public safety issues, hammering Ryan on crime and inflation during the campaign.
He will now run in November for the redrawn 19th District against Ithaca Democrat Josh Riley, who won the Dem primary for the seat on Tuesday.
Special elections tend to be an accurate assessment of the overall political climate because they attract the most engaged voters from each party, political data crunchers say.
The win will likely be a major boost for Dems as they enter the general election amid concerns about inflation and President Biden’s sagging poll numbers as well as the historic trend of the out-of-power party picking up seats.
Polls had given mixed signals about NY-19. A survey done for Molinaro showed him leading by a healthy 10% margin. A more recent Democratic poll last week said Ryan trailed by just 3%.
The district is one of the true swing seats in New York, making it more of a bellwether than most in New York that reliably trend Democratic.
Former President Donald Trump won it in 2016, but President Joe Biden grabbed it back in 2020 by less than 2%.
Delgado narrowly knocked off a GOP incumbent in 2018 and won reelection easily two years later before stepping down to become Gov. Hochul’s second-in-command, succeeding Brian Benjamin after he was arrested on felony corruption charges.
Hochul campaigned with Ryan in the final days leading up to Tuesday’s contest.
“New Yorkers made their voices heard loud and clear tonight,” the governor said in a statement late Tuesday. “This is our moment to build the future we want to see in New York — a state where our freedoms and rights are always protected. I know Pat Ryan will take these values with him to Washington and continue to get the job done.”
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