Only six weeks ago, Keir Starmer’s Labour party seemed locked into the mood of optimism and quiet delight that had started to cohere over the previous autumn. Polls continued to show leads over the Tories of about 25 percentage points. Starmer was guardedly looking ahead to two terms in office and “a decade of national renewal”. Rishi Sunak and his allies, by contrast, were synonymous with disruption, impossible living costs and the state of constant internal chaos labelled “long Johnson”. We were still heading, it seemed, for one of those moments when a tired and divided ruling party simply collapses, and change becomes inevitable.
Maybe we still are. Whenever the next election arrives, Conservative defeat is still the most likely outcome. But as MPs prepare to return after the Easter recess, the battle between the two big Westminster parties has subtly shifted. Labour’s average poll lead is now in the teens rather than 20s, Starmer and Sunak’s personal ratings are almost even, and gurus of political gambling have been heard advising against any bets on an outright Labour win. The key reasons why are not hard to work out: notwithstanding such grinding problems as the ongoing strikes in the NHS, Sunak is just about managing to look like an efficient, stable, confident kind of leader, while Starmer seems stuck – ahead, but coasting.
