A Republican who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump and a popular Democratic state Assemblyman are in what analysts say is a toss-up for a Central Valley congressional seat that could tip partisan balance in the House to the GOP in 2023.
Congressman David Valadao, R-Calif., held a slim lead over Assemblyman Rudy Salas, D-Calif., per the Associated Press. It is still too early — and way too close — to tell who will come out on top; only 21% of the votes had been counted. Valadao had 50.6% of the votes.
In this stretch of San Joaquin Valley farmland, the contest between Valadao and Salas has attracted relentless national media attention, a string of endorsements and heavy spending on ads.
The day before the election, some analysts said Valadao had a slight edge.
California’s 22nd, redrawn based on the 2020 census, runs from Hanford to Shafter. It would have backed President Joe Biden by 13 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election.
Forty-four percent of its registered voters are Democrats and 26% are Republicans. The district has a Hispanic-majority voting-age population; Latino voters have historically backed Democrats in California, though a nationwide trend toward the GOP could shift west.
The party that holds the White House usually loses ground in midterm elections. Economic worries have consistently topped polls of voter priorities, affirmed in surveys last week, which have rallied Republicans to turn in ballots. And experts say that Democratic turnout in California could be poor because races at the top of the ticket, such as for governor and U.S. Senate, are not competitive.
The 22nd has seen the highest number of ads aired of any House district in the country, according to analyses by the Wesleyan Media Project. The 44,000 spots are almost double the volume generated by the No. 2 race, Maine’s 2nd.
Valadao, 45, has swung Democratic votes before and is no stranger to tough elections. The moderate Republican lost to Democrat T.J. Cox in 2018 and regained the seat in 2020 by less than a point in a race too close to call for weeks. Cox now faces federal fraud charges, including an alleged illegal campaign contribution.
Valadao, a Hanford dairyman who first ran for Congress in 2012, said he is focused on improving water access and ending human and drug trafficking.
Following the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection on the U.S. Capitol, Valadao was one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump. He is one of only two who decided to run again and survived the primaries.
Salas, also 45, has been touted as a candidate in the Central Valley for years. The Bakersfield native started in elected office as the first Latino member of his hometown’s city council. If voters pick him, he would be the San Joaquin Valley’s first Latino House member.
A moderate Democrat, Salas has represented the area in the Assembly for a decade. Among other top issues, Salas has pushed for health care access and funds, such as for Valley fever, a common infection for Central Valley residents.
The Central Valley is home to two other tight House midterms in the 9th and 13th Congressional Districts.
Rep. Josh Harder, D-Calif., and San Joaquin County Supervisor Tom Patti, a Republican, are in a close contest for the 9th; analysts say the congressman has a slight edge. Democratic Assemblyman Adam Gray and farmer John Duarte, a Republican, are in a toss-up race for the 13th.
Other Central Valley races featuring long-serving House members have not been high on analysts’ watch lists. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., is expected to win the election in the 20th (and take the speaker’s gavel if the GOP controls the House); Rep. Jim Costa, D-Calif., the 21st; Rep. Tom McClintock, R-Calif., the 5th.
