These are strange times in the NFC playoffs. Aaron Rodgers isn’t here. The defending champs aren’t, either. The Seahawks are, but Russell Wilson isn’t. Win or lose, Seattle will emerge from the playoffs with the fifth overall pick in the draft. Tom Brady is a home underdog to a team coached by Mike McCarthy. Matthew Stafford would have had a better shot at the postseason if he’d stayed in Detroit. Things are so weird that we haven’t even mentioned the Giants.
Here’s another oddity about this postseason, one that extends to the AFC as well. All six wild-card games are rematches from the regular season. Three of them are intradivision games: Seahawks-49ers, Bengals-Ravens, Dolphins-Bills. We could have two more division games in Round 2. The Chiefs could face the Chargers, and the Eagles could face the Cowboys or Giants.
All of this is good news for the Eagles. Rarely does a No. 1 seed come with such a fortunate position. Just look at the AFC, where the top-seeded Chiefs have already lost to both of the teams they are most likely to face in the AFC championship and could need to face Justin Herbert and the Chargers in Round 1. In fact, all seven teams are quarterbacked by former No. 1 picks, including six who either have or will soon sign franchise-type contract extensions.
This NFC field is so thin on boogeymen that we need to go out and find some. So let’s create some order out of this madness. If my math is correct, the Eagles have 11 possible combinations of opponents. Here’s how I rank them in order of difficulty, from most difficult to least:
1) Bucs in the divisional round, 49ers in the NFC championship
How it can happen:Bucs beat the Cowboys, 49ers beat the Seahawks, Vikings beat the Giants.
Fear factor:If we’re weighting our grade relative to the rest of the possibilities, this one ranks as a 5 out of 5. Reality is, certain teams have certain defensive identities, and we saw last postseason how tough a Todd Bowles defense can be. The 49ers are very much in the same mold, except with more talent and a better offensive coach. If Jalen Hurts beats the Bucs and the 49ers on the way to the Super Bowl, he’ll have answered the last remaining question he faces.
2) Cowboys in the divisional round, 49ers in the NFC championship
How it can happen: Cowboys beat the Bucs, 49ers beat the Seahawks, Vikings beat the Giants.
Fear factor:4 out of 5, and that has everything to do with the 49ers. We’ve seen the Eagles handle this Cowboys defense. Whatever Trevon Diggs thinks about his abilities, he is nothing close to the caliber of cornerback that A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith should fear. Plus, Nick Sirianni against McCarthy is no contest. That said, we did see this Eagles defense struggle against the Cowboys a few weeks ago.
3) Giants in the divisional round, 49ers in the NFC championship
How it can happen:Giants beat the Vikings, 49ers beat the Seahawks, Bucs beat the Cowboys.
Fear factor:3 out of 5. My opinion of McCarthy is so low that I tried to talk myself into believing that Brian Daboll and the Giants have as much of a chance of upsetting the Eagles as the Cowboys. Then I stopped talking. But I do think the Giants would scare me more than the Vikings, who have only gotten worse since the Eagles shellacked them on Monday night in Week 2. Minnesota somehow grades out well in the secondary, according to Pro Football Focus, but this is one of the least imposing defenses in the league, at least from the Eagles’ perspective. But the biggest reason to root for a Giants win is that it could force the 49ers to face the Bucs to reach the title game.
4) Seahawks in the divisional round, Bucs in the NFC championship
How it can happen: Bucs beat the Cowboys, Seahawks beat the 49ers, Giants or Vikings win.
Fear factor: 2 out of 5. This might be the most interesting combination. I’m giving the Seahawks the edge over the Giants in my overall playoff power rankings simply because they are an unfamiliar opponent with a coach who has a serious track record.
5) Giants in the divisional round, Bucs in the NFC championship
How it can happen:Bucs beat the Cowboys, Giants beat the Vikings, 49ers beat the Seahawks.
Fear factor:2 out of 5. This might actually be close to the ideal scenario, at least if we assume the 49ers aren’t losing to the Seahawks. A Bucs-49ers matchup might come down to which team scores an offensive touchdown. In that scenario, are you taking Tom Brady or Brock Purdy?
6) Bucs in the divisional round, Vikings in the NFC championship
How it can happen:Bucs beat the Cowboys, 49ers beat the Seahawks, Vikings beat the Giants.
Fear factor:2 out of 5. This might be the storybook scenario. Hurts beats Brady and Bowles in the divisional round and then gets a chance to recreate the 2017 NFC championship at Lincoln Financial Field.
7) Giants in the divisional round, Cowboys in the NFC championship
How it can happen:Cowboys beat the Bucs, 49ers beat the Seahawks, Giants beat the Vikings.
Fear factor: 2 out of 5. This still warrants an eyebrow raise even with the Bucs and 49ers both out of the picture. Divisional games are weird. That said, the cream tends to rise in the playoffs.
The four other potential combinations for the Eagles:Seahawks/Cowboys, Cowboys/Vikings, Seahawks/Giants, Seahawks/Vikings. The first two have a fear factor of 1, the second two of 0. Again, all of this is relative. Winning in the playoffs is difficult, regardless of the opponent. Right now, though, the Eagles couldn’t hope for a better draw.
