Two things not normally associated together: the Detroit Lions and good luck. Yet the NFL’s own data shows the Lions were indeed the beneficiaries of favorable bounces in 2022.
Tom Bliss, the manager of Football ops data science for the NFL, released his final tabulation of wins added per team by luck. Examples of luck include dropped interceptions thrown by a QB, fumble recoveries, dropped passes by opposing receivers and missed field goals and kicks.
The Lions finished on the positive end of the luck spectrum in all but one of the categories. It led to Detroit having the sixth-highest win probability added by good fortune of any team in 2022. The Lions picked up 0.75 wins by the outcome of events out of their control.
The New York Giants led the list, thanks to freakish luck on fumble recoveries and opponents dropping interceptions. The Buffalo Bills came in last, with a full win lost due to fumble recovery outcomes. Fumbles are considered random 50/50 events.
Breaking down Detroit’s positive luck, the Lions had the 4th-best luck on dropped interceptions. The one area where the team didn’t finish with a positive win probability was recovering fumbles. Detroit recovered 17 of the 36 fumbles (both offense and defense), just missing out.
