Police data breaches in Northern Ireland have given republican paramilitaries a powerful tool to intimidate, demoralise and target officers and their families for years to come, according to security experts.
The New IRA and other groups have gained the “upper hand” and will be able to use the unprecedented leaks of officers’ personal information to carry out psychological and possibly physical attacks, the analysts warned.
The scale and nature of the leaks could help dissident republicans identify and target Police Service of Northern Ireland personnel, said Richard English, a professor at Queen’s University Belfast and author of Armed Struggle: The History of the IRA. “Information gathering is a vital part of terrorist planning, and that job just became potentially much easier,” he said.
The data breaches have already hurt police morale, said English. “Confidence among those working for the PSNI, and indeed wider confidence in the organisation, has been very seriously eroded.”
The force has apologised for “systemic” failures that led to the names, rank and departments of more than 10,000 officers and staff appearing briefly online on Tuesday. There was an earlier breach in July when a police-issue laptop and documents identifying 200 officers and staff were stolen from a private vehicle.
Simon Byrne, the chief constable, said dissident republicans have made an unverified claim to have obtained some data.
Whether that is true or not, the dissidents have gained leverage, said Dr Jonny Byrne, a criminology lecturer at Ulster University. “It only takes one individual to say they have this information, and this creates risk. We don’t know what’s real and what’s not.”
Police had to presume dissidents would obtain the data, said Dr Byrne. “Inevitably you have to believe they have it and have the potential to use it. So essentially they have the upper hand.”
Graffiti or messages naming police officers and their families can discourage recruitment, disrupt communities and trigger memories of the Troubles, even if the dissidents had limited capacity to launch attacks, said Dr Byrne.
“It’s smoke and mirrors. Just [for people] to assume you have something is enough to make threats and change behaviour and operational policing.”
Dissidents groups have staged sporadic attacks over the past decade, including shooting and wounding DCI John Caldwell in February. The groups are tiny, with uneven terrorist skillsets, and prone to infiltration by intelligence services. Drawing on pockets of support in Derry, Strabane and Belfast, their goal is to unsettle Northern Ireland and sustain a tradition of physical force republicanism dating from the 1916 rising.
“The PSNI remain a key target for the New and Continuity IRAs,” said Marisa McGlinchey, author of Unfinished Business: The Politics of ‘Dissident’ Irish Republicanism. “Any information that comes their way will be welcome, particularly if related to MI5.” If the groups obtain the data they will use it, said McGlinchey. “They will seize any opportunity they can against the PSNI.”
Officers and employees with sensitive jobs or unusual and easily traceable surnames are believed to be at special risk.
The son of a former police officer, whose property was fortified, said PSNI staff are likely to be offered a range of measures. “Panic buttons, motion sensors, cameras, bullet proof glass and devices which measure disruption to the magnetic field of the car will be offered to those who may not be able to relocate.”
Jay Nethercott, who served in the Ulster Defence Regiment, which was an IRA target during the Troubles, said the data breaches would help dissident republicans’ intimidation. “They’ll just keep playing the fear factor. Everyone worries about their family in this line of work.” Nethercott urged police officers to follow Troubles-era precautions. “Check your vehicle, stop your social life, your football, you golf – just like the old days.”
