The markets remained under sustained pressure through the truncated week and ended on a distinctly negative note. The Nifty traded in a wide 862.95-point range before some recovery emerged from the lows. Volatility expanded sharply alongside the decline, with India VIX rising 18.91% for the week to 14.46. The Nifty eventually settled, registering a weekly loss of 718.55 points (-3.11%).
The technical structure has weakened materially, with the most important development being the Nifty's modest violation of its 200-week moving average, presently placed at 22,606.97. This is the first breach of this long-term average since March 2020 and makes the 22,600 area particularly important over the coming days. The index is also testing the lower boundary of the broad range on the weekly chart. The sooner the Nifty moves back above the 200-week MA, the better for the broader technical setup; the longer it remains below this level, the greater the chance of the corrective trend extending further. That said, the decline has become technically stretched, and an overdue rebound appears increasingly likely.
