After the Kamala Harris Time cover, which made its debut today, Harris has surged ahead of former President Donald Trump in the prediction markets.
On August 9, Harris flipped the odds on Polymarket, a popular crypto-based betting platform and as of this week, she now holds a seven-point lead over Trump.
Less than a month ago, Trump's odds were substantially higher, reaching as much as 72%. This shift came after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed Harris.
Real Clear Polling's average shows Harris with a mere 0.5 percentage point lead. Some mainstream polls, such as those from Harvard and CNBC, still have Trump ahead by a few points.
If you're a Trump fan, you might be crying into your pillow. How did this happen, and can Trump still win? Is Kamala the next president of the United States?
Kamala Harris Time Cover Despite Being the Most Unpopular VP in History
Trump fans argue that Kamala has been the most unpopular vice president in modern history and the entire US population is pissed off at inflation.
Trump supporters might think there's no way hundreds of thousands of people suddenly became ok with Biden/kamala's inflation overnight and actually support Kamala now. That couldn't be farther from the truth.
Polls show most voters from both parties were happy with Biden out of the race. Democrats are distancing Kamala from Biden's policies as she had a minimal role in his presidency and was often sidelined.
While the Trump camp is divided on what issues to target now that Biden has dropped out, every Kamala supporter, on the other hand, is just powering through any doubts they might have and giving her full support.
Trump is watching as Kamala gets Obama-level energy at her rallies, and deep down, he knows Kamala is no Obama, so probably a large chunk of that energy is literally just hatred for Trump.
Kamala Harris Time Cover Vs. Trump-Elon Interview
While the Kamala Harris Time Cover stole the show for Democrats, many tuned into Trump's return to X (formerly Twitter) to be interviewed by its new owner Elon Musk.
While the interview had some interesting points, overall, Trump repeated many of the stump speech throwaways he's been repeating for six years.
Here's a quick recap:
- "The war had zero chance of starting if I were president," Trump told Elon
- Trump argued that his 'strong' relationship with Putin could have prevented the conflict, saying that he had even told Putin not to take action.
- Trump warned about the threat from "nuclear warming," which he said posed a greater danger than "global warming."
- Elon Musk may join Trump's administration if he wins the election.
Harris's rise to the top of the Democratic ticket has been met with positive media coverage and endorsements from celebrities. Meanwhile, Trump's recent public appearances have unsettled his advisors and contributed to his decline in the prediction markets.
How Trump Can Still Win the Election
Despite the Kamala Harris Time Cover crowning her the new president (and they've been wrong before) this election is far from over, as Kamala has many weaknesses.
Here's how Trump could exploit those to win:
Weakness #1 - Limited public engagement.
Kamala is avoiding unscripted interactions or events, which means they fear mistakes, negative press, gaffes, bad posturing, and perceived low status. Trump can counteract this by making himself and his policies visible and accessible. The public can exploit this by constantly hurling bullshit that could be true but is hard to disprove their way.
Weakness #2 - Highly controlled messaging and context:
They plan all appearances and statements. Trump can counteract by doing as many debates as possible with Harris and if he wins he may swerve the vote back to him.
Weakness #3 - Focusing on positive developments.
The maintenance of Kamala's image is more important than Kamala herself, to herself and her campaign. She has few appearances because they must be scripted and positive, but this means she can't afford to face genuine criticism or defend herself.
Final Thought
Regardless, we don't think Kamala will be as hard on crypto and innovation as Joe Biden was.
But certainly, Trump seems better for the economy. It will be a crazy election cycle. Stay tuned.
