When it rains, it pours
Winless in five and nine wins from 10: the formbook gave Leeds United no chance as they kicked off against Arsenal at Elland Road. All of the smart money pitched this as a free hit for the Whites, who would, at best, be looking for some crumbs of comfort going into more decisive fixtures.
The 1-0 scoreline embarrassingly fails to tell even a shred of the tale which unfolded in West Yorkshire on Sunday afternoon. Leeds were magnificent, Arsenal were error-strewn and lucky to go home with one point, let alone three.
This was the best Leeds had played under Jesse Marsch aside from that demolition of Chelsea, which feels like last season already. For United to play that well, against all the odds, and still come away empty-handed, Marsch must wonder what he has to do to end this barren run.
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It’s now six matches without a victory and the momentum behind that narrative is not slowing down. Very few people came into this match expecting to see Leeds stop the rot, but to dominate long periods of a game against the league leaders and find themselves one error and one penalty miss away from glory has to be excruciating.
If your glass is half full you would add encouragement to those emotions. Had this loss come nearer the start of the winless run you might find more supporters with that kind of patience, but even Marsch admitted it’s points which keep him in a job and the team in the division, not promising displays.
This was a reminder of how effective this system can be and how many problems it can cause. While the first half was a touch more even, the second period settled into wave after wave of Leeds attacks.
Arsenal couldn’t get out and when they did they could not get past the indomitable Marc Roca and Tyler Adams, who go from strength to strength in the engine room. All Leeds needed was one less cross-field pass, one penalty six inches to the left and an opposition goalkeeper without the man of the match trophy.
A tale of two strikers
The major talking point coming into Sunday's match was which striker Marsch would go with in his starting line-up. It turns out Rodrigo and Patrick Bamford would each have major sways on events at Elland Road.
The Spain international got the nod, despite the received wisdom Bamford is the long-term future in attack, and he would start well enough. Rodrigo played his part in leaping on Arsenal’s errors, pressing effectively and linking up with Brenden Aaronson or Luis Sinisterra.
It was another small chapter in the book of renewal Rodrigo has been writing this season. From the nadir of Aston Villa at Elland Road in March to the summit of the Premier League’s early scoring chart, the record signing had slowly rebuilt his stock this term.
And then he would show how slowly reputations are built, but how quickly they are crushed. Only the Brazilian will know what was going through his head when he saw fit to hit a pitch-wide, diagonal pass towards his own goal, directly into the path of England’s Bukayo Saka.
It was a cruel reminder of how errors are punished at this level. It was the first and only blemish in a remarkable team performance, but history will show it proved to be the one and only difference on the day.
Rodrigo’s confidence was shot to pieces and unforced errors seeped into his match until the inevitable half-time axe was dropped on his neck. It’s the kind of match-losing mistake which you expect to sideline him for the coming matches.
Bamford would have the second half to himself and have a similarly defining influence, but for moderately more positive reasons. In short, penalty miss aside, the team looked far better in attack with the number nine, whose rustiness again came between him and the goal.
Yes, the miss is not good for the team, the result, his psychology or his confidence, but the runs, movement and instincts were all there to see. It’s just the sharpness and execution which was missing and that’s only coming back with more minutes.
A new formation and slot for Harrison
The obvious tactical switch Marsch had made coming into the match revolved around Jack Harrison. The winger was switched inside to play behind Rodrigo to make space for Sinisterra on the flank.
In the main, it worked. While the first half was not perfect, Harrison was crucial in sitting behind the first line of the press and effectively blocking off Thomas Partey as a passing option for the visiting defenders.
Ironically, the biggest success in that switch is what it did for Sinisterra and Aaronson rather than Harrison himself. That pair ran riot throughout the afternoon in the half-spaces, gifting them clear turf to cause havoc for Arsenal.
There was a slight tinker in the formation when the Gunners had the ball too. As Takehiro Tomiyasu drifted inside from left-back to become a third central midfielder, it dragged Aaronson inside with him.
United would adopt a 4-3-3 and then even see Aaronson and Harrison trade that right-sided central midfield slot at their own request during the break. It was the kind of tactical switch Leeds needed to live with the league leaders and it worked a treat.
Decisive fixtures ahead
Marsch won’t need telling how quickly this promising display against Arsenal will be forgotten if they take less than four points from the next two matches. The halcyon days of Chelsea’s visit have quickly given way to a stressful, worrying set of results and the head coach knows how harshly the spotlight is burning on him now.
From the hope and optimism of August, Leeds have quickly adopted the kind of formbook which carries the hallmarks of last season and they are at the point where they cannot afford for it to go on much longer. When Marcelo Bielsa’s Whites began last term without a win in six, the visit of newly-promoted Watford to Elland Road meant there was no more room for excuses.
If Leeds wanted to be a top-flight team, beating a club like Watford at home was absolutely essential. Now, again on a winless run of six, Leeds must once again turn in points from matches they cannot leave empty-handed.
Leicester City have lost seven of their 10 top-flight matches and will have their only bright spark of the season, James Maddison, suspended. Fulham, newly-promoted, have one win in five and visit Leeds this coming Sunday.
These have to be the matches which turn the tide and the Arsenal performance has at least given them so many reasons to believe they can do it. A resurgent Liverpool wait on the other side of this double-header.
The last time Leeds went nine league matches without a win, Paul Heckingbottom was still getting his feet under Thomas Christiansen’s desk.
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