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HARRISON MILLER

CROX Stock Collapses On Outlook; Skechers Runs Past Forecasts; Hoka Sales Carry Deckers

Crocs reported earnings early Thursday as footwear companies roll out quarterly results. Hoka shoes maker Deckers Brands and Skechers reported late Thursday. CROX stock plunged in Thursday's session. DECK crept lower Friday while SKX stock sprinted after results.

Footwear stocks got off to a running start in 2023, but have since slowed their pace due to softer outlooks.  Analysts expectations point to a mixed bag for upcoming reports.

Crocs

Crocs reported adjusted earnings rose 10.8% to $3.59 per share on 11.2% revenue growth to a record $1.07 billion. Analysts expected the clog maker's earnings to fall 9% to $2.95 per share while sales increased 8% to a record $1.04 billion.

FactSet analysts lowered their expectations from $3.27 per share after Crocs updated its outlook in its Q1 earnings beat from late April.

Crocs Brand sales surged 13.8% to $833 million, driven by a 33.2% increase in revenue from Asia. Hey Dude direct-to-consumer revenue grew 29.7% while digital revenue increased 36.7% compared to last year.

For the third quarter, Crocs sees revenue rising 3% to 5% from Q2 to range from $1.013 billion to $1.034 billion. The company expects adjusted earnings between $3.07 and $3.15 per share.

Crocs guided fiscal 2023 revenue between $4 billion and $4.065 billion, which would represent 12.5% to 14.5% growth compared to 2022. The company expects adjusted earnings range from $11.83 to $12.22 per share.

FactSet analysts forecast Crocs posts earnings of $3.14 per share on $1.06 billion in revenue for the third quarter. Fiscal 2023 earnings are seen climbing 5.8% to $11.56 per share on 13.1% sales growth to $4.02 billion.

CROX Stock

CROX stock is struggling up the right side of a base ahead of earnings. The base has a 151.32 buy point, but investors could find an earlier trendline entry around 129.

CROX stock surged 5.7% Friday to recover some of its post-earnings losses. Shares fell 14.6% Thursday following results, triggering the 7% to 8% sell rule. The stock slid 1.7% to 119.80 Wednesday.

Crocs has a 97 Composite Rating out of a best-possible 99. The Composite Rating combines various indicators into one easy-to-read score. CROX stock has a near-perfect 98 EPS Rating. Crocs' relative strength line is off its highs from April and it has an 88 RS Rating.

Deckers Brands

Goleta, Calif.-based Deckers Brands produces a variety of lifestyle, running and comfort shoes. Its portfolio includes the Ugg, Teva and Sanuk brands as well as the increasingly popular Hoka running shoes.

Deckers' earnings growth accelerated for the fourth consecutive quarter, jumping 45% to $2.41 per share. Revenue for the first quarter increased 10% to $675.8 million. Analysts expected earnings of $2.23 per share on $666.9 million in revenue.

Hoka brand net sales increased 27.4% to $420.5 million, offset by large declines across its other brands. Teva sales fell 18.8% to $48.4 million and Sanuk sales dropped 32.3% to $9.6 million. Ugg net sales slipped 6% to $195.5 million.

Deckers upgraded its 2024 outlook to range from $21.75 to $22.25 per share, from its previous guidance of $21.10 to $21.60 per share. Revenue is now seen rising to $3.98 billion from its prior forecast of $3.95 billion. That would represent up to 15% earnings growth and about 10% revenue growth.

However, FactSet analysts saw full-year earnings of $22.20 on $4 billion in sales, even before the Q2 beat.

DECK stock hit an all-time high of 562.97 on July 12 as shares bolted 33.8% higher year to date.

Shares ticked lower Friday. Deckers stock retreated 3.8% during market hours Thursday.

Deckers has a 97 Composite Rating and a 98 EPS Rating. DECK stock's relative strength line is shy of May highs and it has a 94 RS Rating.

Skechers

Skechers is on a hot streak following its better-than-expected Q1 performance and posted another earnings surprise late Thursday.

Earnings sprinted 69% to 98 cents per share while revenue rose 7.7% to a quarterly record $2.01 billion. FactSet expected an 8.6% drop in earnings to 53 cents per share on $1.91 billion in revenue.

International sales jumped nearly 18% while direct-to-consumer sales increased 29.1%. Average selling prices rose 4.4%.

For the third quarter, Skechers sees earnings between 70 and 75 cents per share on $1.95 billion to $2 billion in sales. That's in-line with sales estimates but well below the FactSet earnings consensus of 92 cents per share.

Skechers' fiscal year forecast is much stronger, expecting earnings between $3.25 to $3.40 per share with revenue between $7.95 billion and $8.1 billion. Analysts expect fiscal 2023 earnings of $3.19 per share on $8 billion in sales.

Skechers stock briefly cleared a 54.77 flat base buy point on July 18.  It then undercut that buy point by more than 8%, triggering the automatic sell rule and invalidating the entry.

SKX stock rallied 9.8% Friday following earnings.

You can follow Harrison Miller for more stock news and updates on Twitter @IBD_Harrison

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