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John P. Hayes, Postdoctoral Research Associate, Department of Political Science, University of Calgary

Critical minerals and energy will be integral to the CUSMA review

The Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) comes up for review on July 1, 2026. Originally negotiated in 1992 as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and later re-negotiated in 2020, CUSMA has experienced a series of logistical and existential obstacles to its continuation, particularly during both presidencies of Donald Trump.

Since taking office for his second term, Canada and Mexico have suffered the ire of Trump, ranging from blanket tariffs to threats of annexation and invasion.

As a result, economic policy uncertainty is at historical highs in Canada, while in Mexico, the devaluation of the peso and a 10-25 per cent U.S. tariff on many Mexican goods has hit the economy hard.

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