To maintain his grip on power, Aleksandr Lukashenko, the 26-year president of Belarus who fraudulently claimed victory in the country’s Aug. 9 presidential election, relies on two factors: support from Russia and backing from Belarus’ powerful security services. Patience in Moscow with Lukashenko may be running thin, as evidenced by the recent visit to Minsk by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, but the Kremlin doesn’t appear ready to abandon Lukashenko yet.
A more promising sign that Lukashenko’s days in power might be numbered is emerging among the Belarusian security forces. This may come as a surprise given the systematic violence that police and other security forces have used for the past four months against thousands of Belarusians protesting Lukashenko’s efforts to steal the election. The Ministry of Internal Affairs is the country’s largest law enforcement agency, with some 130,000 employees. It forms the backbone of Lukashenko’s regime—and what happens in its ranks shapes the political situation in the country.
