Jerry Jones loves making waves. He might have created one larger than he’s expecting.
On Friday night, the Cowboys sent a 2024 fourth-round pick to the 49ers in exchange for quarterback Trey Lance. Lance, 23, spent his first two NFL seasons with San Francisco after general manager John Lynch traded three first-round choices to the Dolphins, moving up to take the North Dakota State product with the No. 3 pick in ‘21.
Now, Lance goes to the Cowboys, the biggest fishbowl in football. He’ll sit behind starter Dak Prescott and veteran backup Cooper Rush, but because of his pedigree, he’ll be far from a typical third-stringer.
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Last year, Prescott led the league with 15 interceptions despite playing in only 12 games. He also tossed two interceptions in a divisional-round loss to San Francisco that ended Dallas’s season. Should Prescott struggle to start 2023, there will be local and national clamoring for Lance to get a look, both from frustrated fans and headline-greedy pundits.
The reasons are obvious. Lance played one full season at North Dakota State and threw 28 touchdowns without an interception. He also ran for an additional 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns. All told, Lance has a combined 420 pass attempts between college and pro football since 2018, which in some ways makes the upside all the more tantalizing.
Once a player is proven to be something, the intrigue wears off. His record speaks for itself. With Lance, nobody knows for sure.
In San Francisco, Lance started two games as a rookie and in a limited sample size, tossed five touchdowns against two picks with 8.5 yards per attempt. Last year, Lance took over as starter and played just five quarters before a broken ankle in Week 2 against the Seahawks ended his season.
Logically speaking, there’s zero argument to start Lance over Prescott even if the latter has issues with turnovers. Lance was given every benefit of the doubt with San Francisco after the team invested three first-rounders to select him, and he couldn’t beat out a seventh-round pick in Brock Purdy or an acquired veteran backup in Sam Darnold.
But logic often goes into the dustbin with Dallas. Look at last season, when many believed the Cowboys should have benched Prescott in favor of Rush, who went 4–1 in five starts while Prescott worked his way back from a thumb injury. Nevermind that Rush completed 58% of his passes with five touchdowns and three interceptions.
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The idea of something new was intoxicating.
Furthermore, the Cowboys have a daunting schedule early on. They’ll play the Giants to open the season before welcoming in Aaron Rodgers and the Jets come Week 2. After a breather in Week 3 with the Cardinals, Dallas welcomes in Bill Belichick and the Patriots before traveling to San Francisco for a Week 5 tilt with the Niners. The following week, it’s the Chargers in Los Angeles before the bye.
All told, the first six weeks include four of the most talented defenses in the NFL, along with a smart, blitz-happy coordinator in the Giants’ Wink Martindale. All this while the Cowboys are figuring out life without longtime offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, who left for the Chargers this offseason.
It’s potentially the perfect storm for chaos in Dallas.
Still, reality needs to be checked. The Cowboys are paying Prescott for the next two years at cap hits of $26.8 million and $59.4 million, respectively. To actually bench Prescott would be staggering, but that doesn’t mean the chants won’t be raining down from AT&T Stadium if the picture isn’t pretty early.
In Jones’s mind, he’s betting on upside here. Lance comes with three years remaining on his rookie deal, including a fifth-year option. The cost is minimal, with Dallas having only to pay base salaries of $940,000 and $1.055 million over the next two seasons. This is a long-term play where, if Lance develops, he could potentially take over for Prescott in 2025 while still being cheap.
But we all know the saying about best-laid plans.
And with Jones, the possibility for a crashing wave is always on the horizon.
