Increased alcohol drinking during Covid could lead to 25,000 extra deaths over the coming decades, researchers have warned - and leading North East health figures warn alcohol abuse during the pandemic is likely to have hit our region hardest.
The shocking figures come from a new study commissioned by NHS England from the University of Sheffield, while another report from the Institute of Alcohol Studies has found that if alcohol consumption does not return to 2019 levels, almost 150,000 more people could develop disease.
Senior doctors have also highlighted that - with the North East already seeing the highest rates of alcohol-related disease - the region would be heavily-impacted. Sue Taylor from health campaign group Balance said this meant "we can't afford to ignore the problem any longer".
The Sheffield team found that 25 to 34-year-olds who were drinking at risky levels before the pandemic were the most likely to increase their drinking when Covid-19 hit. Looking at five alternative scenarios for how alcohol consumption may develop from 2022 onwards, they found that even in the best-case scenario - where drinkers reduced their intake back to pre-pandemic levels this year, there would still be an extra 42,677 hospital admissions and 1,830 deaths over the next 20 years around the UK..
They said the worst-case scenario could see up to 972,382 extra hospital admissions - and more than 25,000 deaths. The team added: "In our main scenario, we estimate that, over the next 20 years, there will be an additional 207,597 alcohol-attributable hospital admissions and 7,153 alcohol-attributable deaths, costing the NHS an additional £1.1 billion compared to if alcohol consumption had remained at 2019 levels.
"These impacts are not evenly distributed across the population, with heavier drinkers and those in the most deprived areas, who already suffer the highest rates of alcohol-attributable harm, expected to be disproportionately affected."
The IAS modelling found there could be 150,000 extra cases of illness due to increased boozing - and this could cost the NHS £1.2bn. However, doctors have warned the impact of this has already been seen, and that even if alcohol use drops rapidly the NHS will still face a £363m bill.
Dr Sadie Boniface from the IAS said the research should act as a "wake-up call" as the projected impact was "not inevitable".
Sue Taylor - who heads up alcohol policy at Balance - said the reports painted a "hugely worrying picture", especially at the UK had been at "crisis point" even prior to the pandemic. She said: "We know that the North East suffers disproportionately and with almost half of the population drinking at increasing and higher risk levels and deaths from alcoholic liver disease higher than ever before, we can’t afford to ignore this problem any longer."
Dr James Crosbie, a consultant gastroenterologist at South Tyneside and Sunderland NHS Trust, said he was already dealing with the consequences of the pandemic boom in drinking. He said: "There are some consequences that can happen quite quickly, such as effects on mental health, social problems, alcohol dependence and a number of acute medical conditions. Just as worrying are the multiple longer-term conditions that will inevitably increase over time as a direct result of increased drinking, including at least seven types of cancer, heart disease, stroke and liver disease.
"As these reports suggest, the increase in consumption is adding to the significant burden of alcohol related harm that already exists, which is a ticking health time bomb for the future."
Allce Wiseman, Gateshead's director of public health, leads national efforts to reduce alcohol use and addiction. She said: "As with Covid, the bulk of alcohol harm falls on the most deprived people in our communities and this is particularly worrying in the North East where, even before COVID, we already suffered from the highest rates of alcohol-related death and illness in England.
"As alcohol has got cheaper, the harm to individuals and communities has got worse. It is a scandal that people can drink a week’s worth of alcohol for the price of a coffee."
Along with Dr Crosbie and Ms Taylor, Ms Wiseman added that there was an urgent need for the Government to act to introduce an "evidence-based alcohol strategy" including restrictions on the "promotion and availability" of strong, cheap alcohol and funding for treatment."
The Department of Health and Social Care said it had published a 10-year plan for tackling drug and alcohol-related harms in 2022
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