Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll has said for years that he envisions his ideal quarterback as a “point guard.”
Before the 2022 season started, and as the Seahawks prepared for their season-opening matchup against Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos, Carroll was asked just what that meant. It was a verbose response, and it’s something Carroll’s obviously thought a lot about.
“Yeah, it’s just the way I’ve learned to appreciate the position. I really learned to appreciate through the San Francisco system, way back when, when Coach [Bill] Walsh was there and what he did with his guys, Joe [Montana] and Steve [Young] and how he talked about it and how he expected them to play and what their role was in a football team’s approach. He designed his offenses; he’s the most brilliant guy to ever coach the game.
“He designed his offense to make it as easy as possible for the quarterbacks because he knew the position was so hard to play. And remember all the catch and run stuff and all the quick rhythm stuff that he was famous for, that was so the quarterback didn’t have to be carrying the load. He can get the ball out of his hands, working with his line and his guys and all that. That just has always resonated. That’s what West Coast is. West Coast is long lost from where it was, but that was all of Coach Walsh’s image of what that position and how it should function in terms of how a team plays football. They’ve featured a tremendous amount of short passing game. He was kind of the guy that started all that.
“So, I’m kind of a hoops guy. Maybe that’s why that reference comes out.”
Why it comes out is important in that new starting quarterback Geno Smith has seemed to be the perfect distillation of Carroll’s quarterback preferences.
Through the first four games of the 2022 season as the Seahawks’ post-Wilson starter, Smith has completed 102 of 132 passes for 1,037 yards, six touchdowns, and two interceptions. His completion rate of 77.3% is the second-highest for any quarterback in the first four games of a season in NFL history (behind only Tom Brady in 2007), and going back to last season when he was Wilson’s injury replacement for three starts, Smith has a four-game stretch from October through October in which he has the fourth-highest completion rate (78.2%) inany four-game stretch in league annals.
This would lead you to believe that Smith is nothing more than a Captain Checkdown, but that’s not the case. His 7.9 yards per attempt average has him tied with Atlanta’s Marcus Mariota for fourth-best in the NFL, and he’s completed seven of 13 passes of 20 or more air yards for 167 yards, three touchdowns, and one interception.
Through those first four weeks, Smith ranks second in DVOA (Football Outsiders’ opponent-adjusted per-play efficiency metric) for quarterbacks, behind only Tua Tagovailoa. He ranks third in DYAR, FO’s cumulative efficiency metric, behind only Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert.
Not bad, and quite surprising, for a 2013 second-round pick who’s been more journeyman and backup than rockstar through his NFL career. Smith won the NFC’s Offensive Player of the Week award on Wednesday after he riddled the Detroit Lions with 23 completions in 30 attempts (76.7 percent) for 320 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions and a 132.6 passer rating, while also rushing for 49 yards and a touchdown in Seattle’s 48-45 Week 4 victory over the Detroit Lions.
It wasn’t just the stats that stood out; it’s the ways in which Smith has taken control of this offense that has me thinking he’s more than a bridge quarterback between Wilson and whoever is available in free agency or the draft in 2023.
Making tight-window shot throws with confidence.
The Lions had all kinds of coverage busts, and we’ll get more into that in a minute, but two of Smith’s tight-window throws last Sunday came against decent coverage, and both plays showed Smith’s growing confidence in the offense, and the coaches’ increasing confidence in him. Through the Broncos and 49ers games in Weeks 1 and 2 of the season, Smith attempted just two passes of 20 or more air yards, completing both for 52 yards and a touchdown. Against the Falcons and Lions in Weeks 3-4, Smith attempted a total of 11 deep passes — tied for third-highest in the league — completing five for 115 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception.
Smith was really cooking against the Lions — in this game, he attempted five deep passes, completing three for 77 yards and a touchdown. Smith’s 54-yarder to D.K. Metcalf with 5:43 left in the first half wasn’t even one of those deep passes — Metcalf gained 35 yards after the catch, so Smith’s 19 air yards fell just short of the designation — but it was entirely illustrative of the Smith we hadn’t seen in the first two weeks of the season.
One of the reasons for Geno Smith's breakout with the Seahawks? He's gaining confidence in his receivers, and his ability to make tight-window splash throws. This 54-yard play to D.K. Metcalf? Weeks 1-2, Smith probably hits Noah Fant on the open crosser. Now, Smith is cooking. pic.twitter.com/jD5cKBsPcw
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) October 5, 2022
As Maxwell Smart would say, Smith missed it by that much.
This ball traveled 19 yards in the air, so it didn't count as a deep pass per charting metrics. Had Smith thrown it one more yard, his line on deep passes against the Lions would have been: 4 of 6 for 134 yards and a touchdown. https://t.co/IP9aEtpXNW
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar) October 5, 2022
This 23-yard play to Metcalf with 6:17 left in the first quarter was another play in which Smith had an easy checkdown and didn’t take it. Running back Kenneth Walker ran a quick in-cut from outside left, but Smith wanted Metcalf over the middle of Detroit’s Cover-6 defense, and he jetted the throw in there. Smith also no doubt understands that throws into traffic that would endanger most receivers can turn into “cemetery balls” for defenders when the ginormous Metcalf is the target. If you have a weapon like Metcalf, use him for his ideal purpose.
“I think we’re just continuing to build,” Smith said after the game of his connection with Metcalf. “It’s now a couple games in, and we’re continuing to develop our chemistry, all the guys out there. So really, D.K.’s a special player. He got some one-on-ones today and some opportunities. It was fun to see him really make a lot of plays. I think he could’ve had a few more had we given it a shot. But for the most part, he played a great game and I think that’s going to continue.”
It continues against the Saints this Sunday, which means we get another battle royal between Metcalf and New Orleans cornerback Marshon Lattiimore. Fun!
Understanding and exploiting defensive mistakes.
As Smith has been in the NFL since 2013, you’d expect him to be able to read and exploit coverage concepts. He certainly did that against the Lions, who threw Cover-0 blitzes at him more often than they should, getting gashed in the run game, and allowing this 34-yard pass to Tyler Lockett with 11:34 left in the game. I’m not sure if this was the play Carroll was talking about when he mentioned Smith’s check out of what was called, but you can see a lot of pre-snap communication, and Smith eagerly hitting a wide-open Lockett downfield.
“Yeah, another zero pressure,” Smith said. They’re bringing everybody, bringing the kitchen sink. I’ve just got to buy enough time for him to get into his route and then just put it into a spot. He did a great job of going to get it.”
Smith said that this 11-yard pass to Lockett on third-and-2 with 3:44 left in the game was another check against the blitz.
“Yeah, I think that’s something that we’re developing within our offense just as far as, like I said, communication,” Smith said, when asked if he’s been given more control to make pre-snap checks. “For us to get these things done on the road in a hostile environment – that crowd was rocking out there, it was loud – made it tough on us. And for us not to have many delay of games and many motion penalties and things like that, I think it speaks volumes to our offense and preparation and how we communicate.
“We have to continue to build on that. We made some great checks today, some run checks, that went for explosive touchdowns. Those are things that we want to continue, so we’re going to continue to build on it.”
Now, the Seahawks have put opponents on alert — if you’re going to do these things, we’re ready for it. In fact, the Seahawks seem to relish the opportunity. When your quarterback speaks that language after delivering on the field, how can that not engender confidence?
“I think if teams are going to zero us out and send the house, we’ve got to make them pay,” Smith concluded. “We’ve got to make them pay. We’re looking forward to those opportunities. I’m pretty sure they’re going to present themselves more, and we’ve got to be ready for it.”
Smith fits Pete Carroll's ideal quarterback prototype.
Carroll has worked with all kinds of marquee quarterbacks in his career as a head coach in the NCAA and the NFL. With the New York Jets in 1994, his main man was Boomer Esiason. With the New England Patriots from 1997-1999, it was Drew Bledsoe. When Carroll moved to USC in 2001, he started out with Carson Palmer, then Matt Leinart, then Mark Sanchez, then Matt Barkley, with a little John David Booty and Matt Cassel thrown in.
When Carroll became the head man with the Seattle Seahawks in 2010, he underwent a two-year quarterback purgatory in which he tried to win with Matt Hasselbeck on the back end of his career, and an odd mixture of Charlie Whitehurst and Tarvaris Jackson.
And then, of course, the Russell Wilson era, which was generally interesting when it wasn’t spectacular.
I asked Carroll this question the Thursday before Smith and his Seahawks beat Wilson and the Broncos: If he could go into a laboratory and create the ideal quarterback, what would that quarterback look like?
His answer certainly surprised me.
“There has never been a more perfect guy than Carson Palmer. I mean, he was perfect. He was big, he was strong, he was fast, he was a great athlete, he was a great competitor, he was the number one pick in the draft, Heisman Trophy winner, the whole thing. I always thought that he was as perfect as you could get, if that is what you’re asking.”
That was what I was asking, but I didn’t expect that particular answer. Palmer was at USC from 1998 through 2002, and he was Carroll’s quarterback in those last two seasons. Palmer really didn’t turn it on until his senior season, when he completed 309 of 489 passes for 3,942 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions. That got Palmer the Heisman Trophy, the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award, the Pac-10 Offensive Player of the Year, and the “honor” (such as it was at the time) of being taken by the Cincinnati Bengals with the first overall pick in the 2003 draft.
Stylistically, Palmer and Wilson could not be more different. Palmer was a stoic pocket passer with a golden arm, and the ability to navigate far more in the pocket than outside of it. Like Smith, Palmer was as much a distributor as he was a pure thrower of the football. Palmer’s coaches wanted him to get the ball out to all of weapons, and Palmer generally complied.
This is what Carroll wanted, and it’s what he’s got. It is not what he is going to have with Drew Lock’s Theater of Randomness. It wasn’t what he had often enough for his taste when Wilson was alternating between “OMG” and “WTF” every week.
And if Smith is able to be that franchise guy, it makes Seattle’s 2023 prospects quite a bit more interesting.
The Seahawks' bright future may be closer than it appears.
As part of the Wilson trade, the Seahawks have Denver’s first- and second-round picks in the 2023 draft, as well as their own. Given how most looked at Smith and Lock before the season started, the automatic assumption was that Seattle would use, and/or package, those picks for Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud, or whoever stood out most to them in next year’s draft class. Or, perhaps Seattle would use its estimated $54.72 million in 2023 cap space (a number that will likely increase by the time the new league year starts) to go after a top-tier free-agent quarterback.
Now, put Smith in as the preferred starter for 2023 and beyond, and the picture looks very different. Smith is playing on a one-year, $895,000, veteran minimum contract, and if he’s The Guy, that obviously puts him in a favorable negotiating space. But he’s not going to get Top 10 quarterback money, which frees things up for other needs — which, after several years of bad drafts and specious free-agency decisions, the Seahawks currently have.
Forcing your assets full-charge to the game’s most important position is a risky gambit, no matter how gifted a quarterback might be. So, if the Seahawks have their unlikely franchise quarterback/point guard in Geno Smith?
Pete Carroll’s future just got a whole lot brighter.
