My biggest personal disappointment looking back at the 2025 edition of my annual exercise to predict all 272 games was how conservative I ended up being, with most good teams clocking in around the 10–7 mark. This reflected what I believed the NFL to be: a collection of about 15 teams that were good enough but not overwhelmingly so, stacked up against a collection of about 17 teams that were either indifferent or totally adrift.
What I missed was the latest turn in the NFL’s ever-evolving battle between offensive and defensive supremacy. Just like defenses hit a breaking point about a half-decade ago, offenses took a turn getting clubbed last season by creative defensive schemes and attacking philosophies. The NFL evolves rapidly, but changing the complexion of a team overnight is harder than turning around a cruise ship.
