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Rich Asplund

Concern About a Smaller Brazil Coffee Crop Underpins Arabica Prices

Ice Brazil Rabobank USDA United States Conab Vietnam Somar Meteorologia Volcafe

July arabica coffee (KCN25) today is up +1.50 (+0.38%), and July ICE robusta coffee (RMN25) is down -27 (-0.50%).

Coffee prices today are mixed, with arabica posting a 7-week high.  Concerns about a smaller Brazil coffee crop are pushing arabica prices higher.  On Tuesday, Rabobank predicted Brazil's 2025/26 arabica coffee crop would fall -13.6% y/y to 38.1 million bags, citing dry weather in key arabica-growing areas that significantly reduced flowering of coffee trees.  However, robusta coffee i sunder pressure after Rabobank predicted that Brazil's 2025/26 robusta coffee crop would climb +7.3% y/y to a record 24.7 million bags.

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