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The Guardian - AU
The Guardian - AU
Environment
Natasha May in Bangkok

‘Compound shock effect’: why the Middle East crisis and El Niño could spell disaster in south-east Asia

Oil tankers and cargo vessels remain anchored off Port Sultan Qaboos on June 21, 2026 in Muscat, Oman
The strait of Hormuz has been largely closed for months, and its fate remains unclear, creating huge problems for south-east Asian economies who rely it on for deliveries of oil and fertiliser. This year’s El Niño could only make things worse. Photograph: Elke Scholiers/Getty Images

When the US and Israel launched the war on Iran, south-east Asian nations were amongst the first and hardest hit, as the closure of the strait of Hormuz cut off supplies of energy and fertiliser.

Governments across the region, heavily reliant on the waterway, raced to find ways to reduce their fuel use: in the Philippines, many government workers were put on a four-day week. In Vietnam, employers were urged to allow staff to work from home. In Thailand, offices were urged to set air-conditioning units to 27C.

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