Sooner or later, commercial real estate’s day of reckoning had to come. Following an era of “cheap money” that stretched all the way back to the 2008 housing crash and Great Financial Crisis, fueling an “everything bubble” that coincided with an age of “superstar cities” and their mega-valuable office buildings, the higher interest rates of 2023 were a shock. It’s largely this higher interest rate environment that’s caused the substantial distress experienced thus far, amounting to what research firm Capital Economics estimates at a $590 billion loss in commercial real estate property values this year. But just how bad will things get in the new year?
Capital Economics, for its part, predicts another $480 billion wipeout in commercial real estate values next year, and another $120 billion loss in 2025, for a 24% peak-to-trough value decline.
