It’s no surprise that midterm elections have historically been a referendum on the sitting president’s political party. Since 1934, the president’s party has, on average, lost four Senate seats and a whopping 28 House seats. What’s more: there have been only three midterm elections in which the president’s political party gained House seats and six midterm elections in which the president gained Senate seats.
But this year’s midterm deviates drastically from past midterm elections. Heading into Election Day, Republicans predicted a massive red wave, and numerous pollsters and pundits predicted that this election would be heavily tilted against Democrats. However, a week after Election Day, President Joe Biden and Democrats are poised to maintain control of the Senate and either lose the House of Representatives by a slim margin or barely hold onto it.
No matter how one slices the results of this midterm, it is clear that Democrats outperformed expectations and historical patterns. What is also clear is that based on the data so far — and it’s important to underscore that full results won’t be known for a couple of weeks — is that young voters were a significant factor in Democrats’ success.
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