A fiscal “doom loop.” A transit “death spiral.” The “office apocalypse.” Since the traumatic disruption of the COVID-19 pandemic, these pessimistic terms have been applied repeatedly to the state of our cities. Analysis of Census data from my Brookings Institution colleague William Frey found that from 2020 to 2021, during the peak of the pandemic, major metropolitan areas including New York and Los Angeles lost a significant number of residents. A net 175,000 people left L.A. for Riverside, the Sun Belt or smaller metros and rural areas.
But new research shows clear signs this trend is reversing. As many downtowns struggle, residential neighborhoods are thriving. While L.A. also lost population in 2022, that year’s rate of population loss was half what it was in 2021. Other cities, such as Seattle and Washington, D.C., have flipped from losses to gains. Yet office vacancy rates continue to rise, and transit ridership remains well below 2019 levels on every major U.S. system. If people are back, where are they?
Not at the office or on the train. Instead, people are enjoying walkable, mixed-use neighborhoods where they can both live and work, in contrast to the 20th century mode of cities and suburbs that rigidly separates work zones from other activities.
