Christian Beck says his chances of claiming back-to-back Sydney to Hobart wins on board LawConnect are slim - specifically 30 per cent.
Proud skipper of his "sh**box" supermaxi yacht, Beck would love nothing more than to win the 628-nautical-mile race again, but there's new management at the helm of long-standing rival Master Lock Comanche.
Last year LawConnect stunned Comanche, under John Winning Jr, to take out line honours by just 51 seconds after four lead changes in the final leg to Hobart's Constitution Dock.
With Winning out of the picture this year, former Sydney to Hobart winners Matt Allen and James Mayo will be calling the shots for Comanche come Boxing Day.
Allen returns to the blue-water classic after a two-year absence, last claiming his third handicap win with Ichi Ban in 2021.
He teams up with Mayo, who claimed line honours and the overall win on Sovereign in 1987.
Beck knows the experienced duo won't make the mistake of underestimating LawConnect.
"Comanche are a bit more wary. They might not have been as worried enough about us as they probably should have been last time," Beck said on Wednesday.
"They're definitely not going to be doing that again. It's going to be very tight, and the odds of us winning ... I'd give us about a 30 per cent chance."
And Beck is correct - Allen sees right through him.
"Christian's been really good at claiming underdog status for a long time," Allen said.
"No, he's the reigning champion. We're the underdog, just to be clear.
"When we get on the water, it's just going to be all on for line honours."
The 2023 victory for LawConnect was their first after finishing runners-up three times in a row.
They pipped Comanche after sailing master Tony Mutter pulled off a "desperate" tack.
"The boat is a sh**box compared to Comanche," Beck said, reiterating last year's sentiments.
"In every way it's better ... it's lighter, it's about four tonnes lighter. It's wider, which gives it more riding momentum, and it's got a much bigger sail area.
"At the end, when Tony did that turn around back ... when that desperate move came off, we just couldn't believe it.
"We were very happy because it was such a painful lead-up.
"To come second three times and just those big boats and the difficulty and the expense and the pain you go through to get there, to actually finally win it was just unbelievable.
"I watched that video lots of times. Whenever I'm having a bad day, I generally watch that video."
LawConnect and Comanche are two of four 100ft supermaxi entrants, joined by Grant Wharington's Wild Thing 100 and Bill Barry-Cotter's Maritimo 100.
The Sydney to Hobart fleet consists of 112 yachts, with six international entrants.
