The Indianapolis Colts are back at home in Week 16, taking on the Tennessee Titans for the second time this season.
In the previous matchup in Nashville, the Colts escaped with the 20-17 victory while Joe Flacco was at quarterback for the injured Anthony Richardson. Indianapolis was also without Jonathan Taylor in this game as well.
It was the defense, however, for the Colts who controlled the game, holding Tennessee to 241 total yards, which included holding the ball for less than five minutes in the fourth quarter.
While, certainly, the Titans are a familiar opponent, a lot can change in an NFL season between Week 6, when these two teams last met, and where we are today with only three games in the regular season left.
To preview Sunday’s game and to catch us up on this Titans team, Dan Benton of Titans Wire provided some insight by answering five of our questions.
Reports suggest Mason Rudolph will start, does the offense operate any different with him vs. Levis under center?
Benton: There’s really not a huge difference in the production between the two when you extrapolate the data, which is an odd anomaly because Rudolph isn’t prone to the wild and weird turnovers that have come to define Will Levis. That’s not to say he doesn’t turn the ball over since their turnover rate is fairly similar, but Rudolph just doesn’t make such a bizarre spectacle out of it (for lack of a better term). I think the key difference is that Rudolph won’t hold the ball as long as Levis and therefore the sack rate is drastically decreased, leading to slightly more passing yards per game. So, the Colts will see more of the same on Sunday but perhaps a bit more quick-passing.
When the Titans have found success, where have they made things difficult for opponents?
Benton: The Titans’ defense is especially strong against the pass, limiting opponents to roughly 182 yards per game (third-best in the NFL). Even with the team banged up, they continue to excel against opposing quarterbacks but need to significantly improve their interception rate. Still, it’s a slog if a team thinks they’re going to be one-dimensional and beat Tennessee through the air. They’re far less dominant against the run and are often put in bad spots due to turnovers and poor special teams play, leading to poor field position which we’ll address further right now.
What’s been the big issue or two that the Titans haven’t been able to overcome?
Benton: The Titans are -13 in turnover ratio, which is third-worst in the NFL. As noted above, they struggle to force takeaways and their offense too easily gives the ball away, putting Tennessee’s defense against the wall entirely too often. It’s difficult to reap the rewards of such a stout defense when opposing offenses only have to drive the ball 10-20 yards to be in field goal range or 30-50 yards for a touchdown. They desperately need to shorten the field for themselves and lengthen it for their opponents, and that only happens by improving the turnover ratio. But don’t hold your breath on that happening.
Who is one under the radar player on offense and one on defense for Colts fans to watch?
Benton: Offensively, there’s not much to speak of outside of Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley. If I had to pick a player it would be tight end Josh Whyle, who is an average blocker (better pass protector than run blocker) but has a good catch rate, hauling in 23 of his 29 targets (26 catchable balls). He’s a sneaky secondary option at tight end and will hurt an opposing team if they ignore him.
On defense, it’s still rookie T’Vondre Sweat. Yes, technically, he’s no longer under the radar, especially after his huge Week 15 performance, but he’s still overlooked in the sense that he’s one of the NFL’s top 10 interior defenders that is rarely talked about. He’s a high-quality run defender and above-average pass rusher (especially for his size), who can also get his hands up and disrupt passing lanes.
Who wins and why?
Benton: Five of the last six Titans-Colts games have been decided by one score (the sixth was a difference of nine points) and given the amount of one-score games both teams have played this season, I imagine this game will follow a similar trend. Still, Tennessee hasn’t been able to overcome the Indianapolis hurdle since 2022 (0-3), and since we’re leaning into trends, that one is also likely to remain the same. It’ll be close and it’ll be ugly, but the Colts ultimately pick up win No. 7, keeping their slim playoff hopes alive for at least one more week. Colts 23, Titans 20
