The Indianapolis Colts are once again coming off a late-game collapse and have another playoff contender to face in the Los Angeles Chargers.
While these two franchises have some history with each other in the early 00s, they have only played four times since 2010, and the last time we saw this matchup was back in 2019. There will be a new face leading the Indy offense on Monday night.
Nick Foles was named the starter and is expected to remain in that spot for the rest of the year. But, with the Colts, we will see about that. Not that a miraculous playoff run was still in sight, if there was any hope of that, it was squashed with the Jacksonville Jaguars’ win over the New York Jets on Thursday night.
With evaluation for the 2023 season underway, we get a chance to see young players further their development and veterans competing for roster spots.
Here are five things to watch for from this prime-time game:
1
Nick Foles as the starter
With Nick Foles being named the starter against the Chargers, that marks the third quarterback that will be playing for the Colts this season. The QB carousel since Andrew Luck’s retirement continues to spin and will go into the offseason as this franchise continues to search for a long-term solution. The last time that Foles made a start will be exactly one year ago come Monday.
On December 26th, 2021, he made his only appearance in the 2021 season for the Chicago Bears. He led Chicago to a 25-24 win over the Seattle Seahawks. Foles finished that game going 24/35 for 250 yards and one touchdown.
The last time that Foles saw extensive action was in the 2020 season when he made seven starts for the Bears. He had a 64.7% completion percentage, and averaged 205.8 passing YPG, while throwing 10 touchdowns, and eight interceptions.
Nobody expects the 33-year-old quarterback to be the answer but his contract does roll over into the 2023 season so this is his opportunity to compete and put his name in as the backup to whoever will be the starter next year.
2
2. Defending Justin Herbert
The “social media quarterback” (according to Emmanuel Acho) is looking to guide his team to a third straight win as the Chargers are looking to lock up one of the wildcard spots in the coming weeks. Justin Herbert’s Year 3 hasn’t been what most expected but he’s still playing good football and is looking to ascend with a healthy Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back in the lineup.
He has three straight games of throwing over 300 yards heading into this matchup. Overall this season, his current 67.5% completion percentage would be a career-high. He’s not throwing as many touchdowns this year but his 1.5 interception percentage is on pace for a career-best.
Herbert is averaging 287.1 passing YPG. One of the things that he’s dealing with more than in his first two seasons is that he’s been under duress due to a banged-up offensive line. His 33 sacks taken in 14 games already is a career-high, which beats the 32 times he was sacked in 15 games in his rookie season.
That is where the Colts can throw off Herbert and make sure he doesn’t find a rhythm. Gus Bradley will need to get his defensive front to be active with early pressure but also understand that Herbert has the athletic ability to take off to get a first down with his legs.
Indianapolis has been able to stifle offenses this season but as we have seen in recent weeks, they have to keep up the effort for all four quarters. Especially when the opposing team has an upper-echelon quarterback like Justin Herbert.
3
Touches among the backfield
The Colts officially ended Jonathan Taylor’s season by placing him on IR with his ankle injury. Which was the correct move by the front office because it makes no sense to further risk the availability of JT for the start of the 2023 season. This does create a good opportunity for Deon Jackson, Zack Moss, and Jordan Wilkins to compete to be on next year’s roster as the backup to Taylor.
Jackson showed he could handle the load earlier this season when he replaced Taylor as the starter but in somewhat of a surprise, when JT left after the opening drive against the Minnesota Vikings, it was Moss who handle the majority of the touches.
He ran the ball 24 times for 81 yards but it was Jackson with a higher 4.2 YPC on his 13 rushes. I expect we will see both split the workload with Jackson handling the passing down work and the two-minute drill because of his receiving ability.
I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Wilkins sprinkled in for a drive or two throughout the game. One thing to note for the rest of the season as we see how the trio of backs is handled with their touches is who is currently under contract for 2023.
Moss’ contract ends after the 2023 season and it was reported when Wilkins was signed to the active roster that it also carries a past next year as well. Jackson is currently a pending free agent so this can be a chance for him to make some money this offseason. With the Colts or another team.
Indianapolis does have a good opportunity to establish the run on Monday night. The Chargers defense is allowing 145.6 rushing YPG, which is the fifth most allowed in the NFL. If they can get Jackson and Moss going then it is a great way to keep Justin Herbert on the sidelines and grind out a way to an upset.
4
Bottling up Austin Ekeler
One of the players the Colts’ defense failed to contain during the epic Vikings comeback was Dalvin Cook. They will be facing a somewhat similar running back on Monday night in Austin Ekeler. He has much more of an impact in the passing attack but he can take it to the ground to pick up chunk gains for the offense.
He hasn’t been as productive running the ball this year. His 49.4 rushing YPG is the lowest since 2019 and he hasn’t gone over 100 rushing yards since their Week 5 win over the Cleveland Browns. But, he can potentially tie or break his career-high in rushing touchdowns. Ekeler currently has nine rushing touchdowns and needs four more to reach another milestone.
While the production on the ground isn’t up to par, his 45.4 receiving YPG would be the second-highest average in his career. Just like his rushing touchdowns, he also has an opportunity to tie or break his career-high in receiving touchdowns. Ekeler has five entering Monday night and just needs four more to get that milestone marker.
The Chargers have a number of weapons in their offense that they can spread the ball to but Ekeler can be that catalyst when nothing else is working. The more the Colts can take away his impact on the game the more they can make LA one-dimensional and get Justin Herbert with the pass rush.
5
Fourth down defense
It’s no secret that the Chargers aren’t afraid to go for it on fourth downs under Brandon Staley. No matter where they are on the field or what the game situation is. That means Gus Bradley has to have his defense expect to stay on the field for every fourth down until they see Justin Herbert headed to the sidelines.
Los Angeles has gone for it on fourth down 28 times this season, which is the fourth most in the NFL. They’ve completed 50% of the attempts, which is tied for the 15th-highest mark in the league. That is a drop-off from the 2021 season when the Chargers converted 64.71% of their fourth down attempts.
The Colts’ defense is giving up fourth down conversions on 47.62% when the opposing team goes for it. That is the 12th-best in the NFL. It is a drop-off from 2021 when Indianapolis only gave up conversions 57.14% of the opposing team’s fourth down attempts.
The more glaring thing the Colts were only able to stop 25% of fourth-down attempts over their last three games. We’ll likely see Staley elect to go for it multiple times on Monday night and if Indianapolis can make those stops then it can turn into a spoiler game for the Chargers.
