The college football season has just a couple of weeks left in the regular season and the number of teams that have a shot at making the College Football Playoff is dwindling. There are probably eight teams that can still get into all of the fun, but some need help.
Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan and TCU control their own paths. Tennessee, USC, Clemson and LSU can still put themselves in good position to give the College Football Playoff selection committee something to think about.
One thing we know is either Ohio State or Michigan will lose in a couple of weeks, so it’s going to create some chaotic scenarios. Good luck trying to figure it all out.
That’s where the popular analytics website FiveThirtyEight comes into play. Each week, they take the results on the field and the College Football Playoff rankings to tweak their College Football Playoff Predictions model to determine which teams have the best chance of getting into the four-team field.
Here’s where things stand with each team’s chances of making the CFP, cutting it off with teams that only have a 5% or better chance still at this point in the season after Week 1.
No. 11 (tie) - Oregon Ducks (8-2)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
5% (⇓)
Chances if win out
29%
No. 11 (tie) - Kansas State Wildcats (7-3)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
5% (⇑)
Chances if win out
19%
No. 10 - North Carolina Tar Heels (9-1)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
8% (⇑)
Chances if win out
40%
No. 9 - Utah Utes (8-2)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
13% (⇑)
Chances if win out
42%
No. 8 - LSU Tigers
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
14% (⇔)
Chances if win out
81%
No. 7 - USC Trojans (9-1)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
17% (⇑)
Chances if win out
81%
No. 6 - Clemson Tigers (9-1)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
39% (⇑)
Chances if win out
72%
No. 5 - Michigan Wolverines (10-0)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
44% (⇓)
Chances if win out
>99%
No. 4 - Tennessee Volunteers (9-1)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
46% (⇑)
Chances if win out
56%
No. 3 - TCU Horned Frogs (10-0)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
49% (⇑)
Chances if win out
>99%
No. 2 - Ohio State Buckeyes (10-0)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
67% (⇑)
Chances if win out
>99%
No. 1 - Georgia Bulldogs (10-0)
Chances of making the College Football Playoff
88% (⇑)
Chances if win out
>99%
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