Voters will decide Sunday whether to stay with the party that has governed Paraguay for seven decades or back a broad opposition coalition that has mounted a strong challenge amid discontent over health, schools and corruption.
The elections for president and Congress could also have geopolitical implications as Paraguay is the only country in South America with political ties to Taiwan and the opposition coalition has vowed to review that relationship.
The landlocked country, which enjoys a relatively stable economy even as it suffers high levels of poverty and corruption, has been practically immune to political change and the social movements that have swept the region, including the feminist wave.
But analysts say the political landscape may be due for alteration given that popular anger is at high levels over corruption and the deficiencies in the health and education systems that worsened during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Efraín Alegre, the leader of the Liberal party, the second-largest political force in Congress, is the presidential candidate of the opposition coalition that has united disparate parties in their desire to oust the long-governing Colorado Party.
Santiago Peña, a former finance minister who is Colorado’s presidential candidate, is former aide to powerful former President Horacio Cartes, who has been accused of corruption and links to terrorism by the United States.
Peña's party is South America’s longest-ruling political party, essentially governing Paraguay since 1947.
“This is a very unique electoral process,” said Diego Abete Brun, a political science professor who heads the Latin American and Hemispheric Studies program at George Washington University. “There are two competing visions: one to continue with a 70-year hegemonic system and the other a coalition project, an unprecedented political experiment in Paraguay that has joined together different parties from the center-right to the left.”
Although all signs point to “close elections,” Abete Brun says he sees “more wind in favor of the opposition.”
As for Taiwan, Alegre has said Paraguay's relationship with Taipei is too costly.
“Under current circumstances, Paraguay is making a significant effort, despite being a small country, by choosing to maintain relations with Taiwan instead of pursuing opportunities with China. We do not see Taiwan making a similar effort,” Alegre said in an interview with The Associated Press. “We believe that this relationship is unfair, and as a result, we have a critical stance.”
Peña has defended the country’s relationship with Taiwan, but says he would seek more trade with China, without explaining how that would come about.
“Paraguay must insert itself in the world, in all the markets, including the Chinese market of 1.4 billion people,” Peña told AP.
Alegre, a 60-year-old lawyer, is making his third bid for the presidencv, though this time he is representing a mix of political parties that all call for change and an end to Colorado's reign.
“People are convinced that change will come on April 30, and that we will begin a new era in Paraguay,” Alegre said. “We all understand that this is Paraguay’s decision for the next 15 or 20 years. This isn’t just one election, it’s not just for five years. It’s about an exhausted system and the need to reclaim the true Paraguay.”
The responsibility for ensuring the continuity of the Colorado Party falls on Peña, who was finance minister in the Cartes government of 2013-2018 and, until recently, a member of the board of Banco Basa, a local bank owned by the former president.
Peña’s presidential campaign was hit by U.S. economic sanctions against Cartes for alleged bribery and ties to Hezbollah, which the United States designates as a terrorist organization.
The State Department said Cartes is “one of the wealthiest individuals in Paraguay” and charged he has “engaged in a concerted pattern of corruption, including widespread bribery of government officials and legislators.”
The sanctions blocked Cartes, who is president of the Colorado Party, from the U.S. financial system and cut off funding and loans for the Colorado Party’s campaign.
“The sanctions have been lethal,” said Abete Brun. “Cartes was the financing chief of the Colorado Party. The cash box was left empty.”
Peña said the accusations against Cartes “are groundless.”
Paraguay doesn’t have a runoff, so whoever of the 13 candidates receives the most votes Sunday will be the country’s next president.
One key factor will be turnout, considering that on average only around six-in-10 Paraguayans go to the polls.
The low participation numbers are at least in part due to the “Paraguayan migrant population in Argentina, Spain and the United States that, despite having the legal right to vote, does not,” historian Milda Rivarola said.
The May 1 Labor Day holiday could also decrease participation by voters.
