Halloween might not yet be upon us, but the creepy thing is, Christmas is coming – and fast.
A Guardian analysis shows that the Grinch-like grumble that “Christmas is getting earlier every year” is actually justified. Figures from major supermarkets, local news bulletins and the UK Top 40 charts confirm what members of the public have long suspected: that the slow and steady takeover of the calendar by Christmas-themed items, songs and adverts – a phenomenon known as “Christmas creep” – is in fact real.
Off the charts
The autumn leaves may still be clinging on to trees but among us dwell a cohort of people who, in a few short weeks, will start humming songs about “chestnuts roasting on an open fire”, “are you hanging up your stocking on the wall?” and “rockin’ around the Christmas tree”.
If the UK music charts are anything to go by, then, for these people, it is now acceptable to begin listening to festive tunes from mid-November onwards, a full 45 days before the big day.
Looking at when a Christmas song first enters the UK Top 40 singles each year demonstrates a steady Christmas creep since the 1990s. Last year two songs entered the charts in the week beginning 10 November: Wham’s Last Christmas (in at no 37) and Mariah Carey’s All I Want For Christmas is You (in at 40, aided by an admittedly clever online campaign). That marked the second earliest Christmas song in the Top 40 since at least the 1960s, and the first time two Christmas tracks have made it into the charts that early.
In the 1990s and early 2000s it was much more common for a Christmas song to only reach the Top 40 in the last two weeks of the year (East 17’s Stay Another Day – which the Guardian Data Journalism team officially considers a Christmas song – was a notable exception, reaching No 7 on 27 November 1994).
The earliest charting Christmas hit the Guardian could find was Mistletoe by Justin Bieber, which broke into the Top 40 on 23 October 2011, during the peak of his powers (in 2021, Rolling Stone magazine included Mistletoe on its list of the worst Christmas songs of all time).
Since 2014, the Official Chart Company has included streaming data into its rankings – suggesting that the reason these songs may be coming around earlier is simply because we can’t resist streaming them.
Shopping
You’re most likely to hear someone grumble about Christmas getting earlier while shopping – and not without reason. Figures compiled for the Guardian by retail research firm Assosia show that Christmas now begins in summer, if the first sale date of mince pies and Christmas puddings means anything.
Looking at the average launch date across Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda and Morrisons, the figures show a six pack of Mr Kipling mince pies was launched on 7 September this year – down from 9 September in 2023, and 28 September in 2020.
Own-brand mince pies have been subject to similar trends, as have Christmas puddings.
Once again, it seems the reason for this is we can’t get enough. A Mr Kipling spokesperson said: “It will come as no surprise that we love mince pies no matter what the time of year, but we aren’t the only ones. Plenty of consumers are happy to start stocking up on Christmas goodies when they appear on shelves in September, which is why our retail partners get in the festive spirit early to meet that demand.”
Christmas markets
Christmas markets may have originated in German-speaking Europe, but are now a firm fixture in cities and towns across the UK. They’re also appearing earlier and earlier on the calendar of local councils.
Birmingham’s Frankfurt Christmas Market – one of the largest in the country – is opening on the 1 November this year. That continues an earlier-opening trend since at least 2010.
The Guardian found similar trends elsewhere: Exeter’s Christmas market is opening on 15 November (compared with 23 November in 2012) and Manchester’s opens on 8 November (from 18 November in 2010).
Other places have held steady when it comes to the Christmas calendar. Bath seems to have bucked the trend since the pandemic, opening its market on 28 November this year, compared with 24 November in 2022.
The Guardian also found that the Christmas light switch-on in Oxford Street and the launch of the John Lewis Christmas advert had also broadly resisted the pull of Christmas creep, with dates fluctuating over the past decade. There may be hope for the grinches among us yet.
• This article was amended on 28 October 2024. An earlier graph showing when Christmas markets open said that Manchester Christmas market started on 10 November when it starts on 8 November. Also Bath market was cancelled in 2022 because of Covid.
