Chelsea's issue since Christmas has been evident. Especially in the past 10 games the problems for Graham Potter have centred around converting chances.
They have underperformed their xG by more than seven goals in that time and have failed to score more than once in a game in all but one match since November. Although the defensive improvement has largely meant that games have been closer than the 4-1 loss to Brighton or the limp 1-0 defeat to Arsenal, there is still no reliable source of goals.
Their joint second top scorer is Jorginho, who left on deadline day and has only converted penalties. Raheem Sterling has started just two games in 2023 and is still the leading marksman for the team in all competitions. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is also tied for second and has not scored since October 11.
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It is not hard to see where they have struggled. Before the World Cup it was hard to see any signs of positivity but the new winter signings have all shown flashes of quality. It is ridiculed by some but expected goals has Chelsea as winning seven of their last nine matches. In essence it means that performances have been much better than results.
During this time they have mixed and matched with makeshift options, the burden lying on Kai Havertz's shoulders. He is not a natural No.9 but does not have the creativity to play in the No.10 role like Joao Felix. Needing a striker is not a new issue though.
Romelu Lukaku was meant to be the man to solve the issues for Thomas Tuchel, meanwhile Brighton developed into a strong side under Potter without a consistent goalscorer up front. Rio Ferdinand still thinks this is where the hole in the squad is though.
"They haven’t got a No.9 in this team," he said after the 1-0 defeat to Borussia Dortmund. "They spent all that money in the last two transfer windows and didn’t get an out-and-out No.9. That’s the problem.
"Long term, I think he’ll go and get that. They’re doing everything up to that point really, really well. The way the team’s been able to pass the ball through the lines and get into those really good areas. But again, they got undone by a clinical bit of finishing which they didn’t have in their own team."
The market of strikers of the quality Chelsea would recquire is a tough one access. Harry Kane is the obvious answer but would be commiting a sin moving from Tottenham. Victor Osimhen is in excellent form at Napoli but is another one likely to take a large chunk of cash to sign.
It means that for now the load will have to be shared. Felix, far from prolific at Atletico Madrid, is a better finisher than his two wasted chances in Germany showed and would expect to convert those shots more often than not. The major rise in chance creation in the past three games has been a boost for a team that have looked blunt, even if the end product isn't yet there.
Quick forwards with excellent close control and unpredictable dribbling are tough to stop. It makes Mykhailo Mudryk a nightmare to defend against but until the experience and end product comes Chelsea are likely going to keep falling short. This is part of why Potter is being given time.
Mudryk, Felix and Havertz aren't going to become master finishers before the season is up but if they keep creating high quality chances then goals will come. Just not in the same volume as if they had the footballing equivalent of a pot of gold at the end of a rainbow.
Aubameyang can perhaps look on with envy and a touch of 'I told you so' but the question remains with him, would Chelsea be producing the same chances with him on the field? Kai Havertz is a far from a flawless striker but his link-up and build-up play is still much more natural and accomplished than Aubameyang.
He was the architect for Felix's two guilt-edged chances. If the chances had fallen for Aubameyang then perhaps he is more likely to score it but Chelsea have been trying to build a cohesive attacking unit and they are closer to that than before. Aubameyang's inclusion would mean taking a step away from that and focusing on the pure output of a striker rather than the process behind it.
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