The chance of Chelsea winning their third Champions League this season stands at just 5%, as calculated by FiveThirtyEight. This places Graham Potter's side as the second least likely to lift the grandest European trophy in Istanbul this June.
Chelsea's round-by-round probabilities took a sharp decline after their route to the final was mapped out on Friday morning during the quarter-final and semi-final draw. The Blues were drawn against holders Real Madrid in the last-eight, a repeat of last season's quarter-final, before a potential semi-final tie against Manchester City or Bayern Munich.
Chelsea are said to have a 37% chance of reaching the semi-finals and a 9% chance of making the final. The west Londoners are actually deemed the least likely of the eight remaining sides to reach the final, despite doing so just two years when Thomas Tuchel's outfit claimed the club's second European title.
