The chance of Chelsea winning their third Champions League this season stands at just 5%, as calculated by FiveThirtyEight. This places Graham Potter's side as the second least likely to lift the grandest European trophy in Istanbul this June.
Chelsea's round-by-round probabilities took a sharp decline after their route to the final was mapped out on Friday morning during the quarter-final and semi-final draw. The Blues were drawn against holders Real Madrid in the last-eight, a repeat of last season's quarter-final, before a potential semi-final tie against Manchester City or Bayern Munich.
Chelsea are said to have a 37% chance of reaching the semi-finals and a 9% chance of making the final. The west Londoners are actually deemed the least likely of the eight remaining sides to reach the final, despite doing so just two years when Thomas Tuchel's outfit claimed the club's second European title.
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At the other end of the scale, the other English side remaining have the highest chance of lifting the trophy. Pep Guardiola's Manchester City side have a 28% chance of winning their first Champions League, some 10% clear of second favourites Bayern Munich, who they play in the quarter-final.
Napoli, who were dubbed many people's underdogs of the competition, place next at 17%, after receiving a favourable route to the final, ahead of last year's victors Real Madrid with 13%. Benfica come next with 10%, while the two Milan sides sandwich Chelsea - with Inter at 6% and AC at 3%.
Although City are the most likely side to win the competition, Napoli's kind draw means they have the highest probability for simply reaching the final. Chelsea will meet Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeu for the first-leg, which is scheduled to take place on Wednesday April 12 at 8pm, as stated on Chelsea's website.
Graham Potter's side will then welcome the Spanish giants back to Stamford Bridge for the decisive game on the evening of Tuesday April 18.
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