This week, Scottie Scheffler and Jordan Spieth return to their home state for the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club in Forth Worth, Texas. Both Texans lead the outright betting favorites at this non-elevated event that contains a stacked field. There is an immense gap between Scheffler at +400 and Spieth at +1400. Scheffler is the World No. 2 ranked golfer and hasn’t dipped below a T12 finish since October. He has come extremely close to winning each of the last two events at AT&T Byron Nelson and the PGA Championship, but Scheffler gets another chance to win this event in front of his peers at home.
Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy are among the notable players absent from the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge, but there are plenty of big names that warrant consideration for outright bets this week. Viktor Hovland has emerged as a consistent threat atop leaderboards despite a late flop against Brooks Koepka on Sunday at the PGA Championship, while Tony Finau and Collin Morikawa are among the premiere ball strikers on the PGA Tour this season. There’s good value with some of the longer odds for outright betting as well, notably Cam Davis, currently at 40/1, and Justin Rose at 28/1.
Let’s look at the current outright betting odds and course layout and find out why you should tail several of my favorite players for outright betting odds at the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge this weekend.
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Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Odds
2023 Charles Schwab Challenge Betting Preview
Previous Winners
- 2022 - Sam Burns (-9)
- 2021 - Jason Kokrak (-14)
- 2020 - Daniel Berger (-15)
- 2019 - Kevin Na (-13)
- 2018 - Justin Rose (-20)
Relevant Betting Stats
- Scrambling
- Sand Save percentage
- Strokes Gained Approaching the Green
- Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee
- Driving Accuracy percentage
- Strokes Gained Putting
- Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green
Course Layout
Colonial Country Club is a par 70 that runs slightly over 7,200 yards. It features a number of lengthy holes, including the Horrible Horseshoe from holes 3-5, which includes two difficult par 4s and a par 3 sandwiched between that will test even the best irons. The course opens up with a par 5 right away, while the other par 5 is located on the 11th hole at a daunting 635 yards. Iron precision continues to be the key, along with navigating fast-paced Bentgrass greens.
Water hazards are abundant here, including the 13th hole, while also flanking the left-side of the 18th hole par 4 that should create some chaotic finishes. Sand save percentage will be helpful, as Colonial recently added more bunkers ahead of its scheduled restoration project led by Gil Hanse to prepare for the 2024 Charles Schwab Challenge. Bermudagrass is found on the tee box and fairways, while overseeded rough around Bentgrass greens creates an interesting dynamic. Bentgrass rolls up to 13 feet via the Stimpmeter, which is what we saw as the putting surface at both Majors, so players attending from last weekend should be able to adapt quickly to the difficult pace.
Top Players To Bet For Outright Charles Schwab Challenge Winner
Scottie Scheffler (+400) (Bet $100 to collect $500) FanDuel has the best Scottie Scheffler odds
Outright betting favorites often disappoint. Scottie Scheffler has proven to be an outlier in this regard. The 26-year-old Texan has not dipped below a T12 finish since before Halloween while logging two consecutive T5 finishes. Scheffler has two outright wins this season but has yet to earn an outright at the Charles Schwab Challenge, so with fuel added to the fire from a couple of recent close calls, plus his peers in attendance at Fort Worth, he’s a confident wager to make as the clear-cut betting favorite at short 4/1 odds.
Jordan Spieth (+1400) (Bet $100 to collect $1,500) Head to FanDuel for the best Jordan Spieth odds
Jordan Spieth won this event in 2016 and logged a runner-up in 2017, so despite the current wrist injury, he’s a player worth backing at 14/1 odds. Spieth is another local star golfer who should have a lot of support in the crowd this week, boosting his production. Spieth has not played well since losing a multi-hole playoff matchup against Matt Fitzpatrick at the RBC Heritage a month ago. Still, the nagging wrist injury is clearly a contributing factor. This number could be closer to 10/1 if Spieth was fully healthy. Still, he’s consistently dominated this course throughout his career, including a T7 in 2022, so I like his chances to compete for the outright win late on Sunday afternoon.
Collin Morikawa (+1600) (Bet $100 to collect $1,700) For the best Collin Morikawa odds go to FanDuel
I haven’t been as prone to betting on Collin Morikawa compared to other handicappers, but the 26-year-old Californian has arguably the strongest iron play on the PGA Tour. He’s ranked first in strokes gained approaching the green, which is a massive asset to possess at Colonial, plus he finished runner-up here in 2020. Morikawa is not great with the flat stick, but he counters that weakness with fifth-ranked strokes gained tee-to-green, 22nd off-the-tee, and 30th in total driving. He hits over 70 percent of greens in regulation and has five T10 finishes this season, although the last one came at The Masters over a month ago. Morikawa is due for a big outing, and he could dominate a track he’s comfortable playing. 16/1 is solid value compared to where this number will move to with a strong start, so let’s back Morikawa confidently.
Justin Rose (+2800) (Bet $100 to collect $2,900) Go to FanDuel for the best Justin Rose odds
Justin Rose is another previous winner at Colonial, and he’s been playing solid golf lately. The 42-year-old Englishman has sharp irons, ranked 14th in total strokes gained, primarily with tee-to-green (33rd), approaching the green (33rd), and putting (20th) in strokes gained metrics. Rose is also third in sand save percentage, which appears in his scrambling, ranked 36th at a 63.7 conversion rate. Rose has two T10 finishes in his last five events, which doesn’t include his outright win at Pebble Beach earlier in 2023. It’s been five years since he won the Charles Schwab Challenge, but he’s rounding into form to be a lucrative investment for an outright winner bet at 28/1 odds on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Cam Davis (+4000) (Bet $100 to collect $4,100) FanDuel has the best Cam Davis odds
Admittedly, I haven’t been on Cam Davis at all this season, but he’s showing up and playing great golf lately. The Aussie has a T7 and T4 finish in two of his last three events played, including the PGA Championship, where he went -5-under-par in the final round to surge into a T5 finish at the second major event of the season. Davis excels off-the-tee, ranked eighth in strokes gained off-the-tee, and ranks inside the top 30 for tee-to-green. He’s equipped with a powerful driver but a poor putter, ranking sixth in sand save percentage. Davis doesn’t have eye-popping metrics, but he can pop off at any moment; plus, he finished T7 in this event a year ago. At 40/1, we’re obligated to sprinkle on his outright odds.
