After falling to 2-3 in another heartbreaking loss to the Cowboys on Monday night, the Chargers travel to Kansas City for their first matchup with the 5-1 Chiefs.
Here’s why Chargers fans should feel optimistic heading into Sunday’s game.
Justin Herbert in Arrowhead
Herbert is one of just two active quarterbacks with multiple road wins in Arrowhead Stadium, with a career 2-1 record. (Josh Allen is the other, with a 2-2 record). In three career games on the road against the Chiefs, Herbert has thrown for 917 yards while completing more than 69% of his passes with a 10:1 touchdown to interception ratio.
Despite having his worst game of the season against Dallas, Herbert is still performing like one of the best quarterbacks in the league in most areas. The one exception is against Cover 3, where Herbert’s EPA/play has been a dismal -0.048, 21st in the league. The Chiefs, however, run Cover 3 at the lowest rate in the league this season at just 10.6% of their defensive snaps. They prefer to run Cover 1 (20.3%) or Cover 4 (24.6%). Herbert is 14th in EPA/play against Cover 1 but 6th against Cover 4, setting him up for a solid bounce-back game on Sunday.
Run defense - no, seriously
The Chargers have legitimately fixed their run defense this season. Yes, the pass defense has lagged, incentivizing opposing offenses to disappear from the ground game. But LA has stifled the run on the reps they have gotten, at least compared to the first two seasons of Brandon Staley’s defense.
LA’s 4.0 yards per carry allowed is 17th in the league, far from an elite unit, but it’s more than a yard better than their defense last year. That includes holding Tony Pollard to 2 yards a carry on Monday, Derrick Henry to 3.2, Raheem Mostert (seventh in the league in rushing yards this season) to 3.7, and Josh Jacobs to 3.4.
Isiah Pacheco has led the way for the Chiefs’ ground attack, accumulating 4.4 yards a carry on 87 totes through 6 games, with the Chiefs averaging 27.5 rushing attempts a game. Last season, that number was 24.3, indicative of Kansas City’s increased reliance on the run in 2023. While funneling the game plan towards Patrick Mahomes is never a great idea, it does suggest that the Chargers may be able to force Kansas City into third and longs.
Vulnerable tackles
Kansas City’s investment in the exterior of their offensive line has not paid off thus far. The better of their two tackles, Jawaan Taylor, is tied for 28th in pass-blocking efficiency, while left tackle Donovan Smith is tied for 44th. (For reference, Rashawn Slater is 25th and Trey Pipkins is 39th.)
Meanwhile, the Chargers’ pass rush has been aided this season by the emergence of rookie Tuli Tuipulotu. The USC alum has five sacks on the season, second on the team behind Khalil Mack, who is tied for second in the league at seven after his dominant performance against the Raiders. As a team, Los Angeles has 21 sacks, the fourth-most in the league. None of the other teams in the top five have had their bye week yet. Morgan Fox’s emergence has also added to this production, as he’s logged five sacks of his own. But with another week of recovery for Joey Bosa and a matchup with a mediocre tackle duo, the edge rushers for LA are poised to make a big difference on Sunday.
Sleepy red zone offense
The biggest story about the Chiefs’ offense this season has been their struggles in the red zone. After scoring a touchdown on 69.4% of their red zone possessions in 2022, Kansas City has managed a touchdown just 54.2% of the time when they get into the red zone this season. That ranks 17th in the NFL, below offenses like the Bears, Broncos, and Panthers.
The Chargers allow a touchdown on half of their red zone possessions on defense, but Kansas City’s struggles have as much to do with their own issues as the defenses they’ve played. It’s consistently felt like the Chiefs have gotten too cute inside the 20, taking the ball out of the hands of their best playmakers to run increasingly galaxy-brained plays. The general shortage of weapons outside of Travis Kelce has also further congested the field for the Chiefs.
