2023 will be a year of reckoning for Myanmar. In August next year, the country will hold an election, which many believe will be a one-horse race. Such a result will certainly be a headache for the international community, especially supranational bodies like the United Nations.
If the junta under the State Administration Council (SAC) wins the elections, more countries, especially those in the West, will act more aggressively against the SAC and its allies.
As such, 2023 looks set to be a complicated year for Thailand's bilateral relationship with Myanmar.
Unlike most critics of Myanmar, many of whom are separated by distance, Thailand has been playing the role of the understanding neighbour for the past two years.
Considering both nations share a 2,400-kilometre border, Thailand does not have the luxury of pressuring the junta in Nay Pyi Taw with ultimatums, nor can it afford to show any support for anti-government rebel groups.
But Thailand and Myanmar have a good relationship which extends beyond the government. Various Thai governments and the Thai army have participated in peace talks between different Myanmar regimes and ethnic rebel groups, which have been active since the nation gained its independence several decades ago. The border between the two countries has served as a sanctuary for millions of political activists and ethnic rebels, as well as civilians who want to move on with their lives.
As such, Thailand has a moral duty to at least wag its fingers in disapproval if Nay Pyi Taw intensifies its crackdown against its own people. So far, it is estimated that over 2,273 people have been killed, and at least 15,400 civilians have been arrested by the SAC since the coup in Feb 2021.
Since the coup, Foreign Affairs Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Don Pramudwinai and a team of special envoys have made several trips to Nay Pyi Taw. Last month, the government reportedly held an "open-ended consultative meeting" in Bangkok, which was attended by representatives from Myanmar, as well as Laos and Cambodia. The result will be revealed in February.
After two years of playing the understanding neighbour, Thailand's approach has yet to yield any success. As such, it is about time the government developed a systematic humanitarian approach to the crisis.
The government has provided piecemeal assistance to refugees at the border, but the distribution of aid must be ramped up this year, with the participation of local and foreign NGOs.
The government must officially announce a policy of non-repatriation of political activists and urge other Asean countries to apply this policy too. The Myanmar junta has executed political activists and anti-government protesters; sending these activists back is tantamount to a gross human rights violation.
It is time for Thailand to make its voice heard by launching initiatives to end the crisis, such as setting up meetings to help resolve related issues such as human trafficking and providing guidelines on the provision of humanitarian aid in times of disaster. It can help negotiate the release of political prisoners or even an amnesty for Aung San Suu Kyi.
Above all, Thailand needs to show the people and the world that it is working for the greater good, not just to maintain close bilateral relationships or to protect the interests of Thai companies such as PTT Group, which has significant investments in Myanmar.
