It’s rare to see a baseball transaction with such a perfect match between timing and substance.
The timing was around 2 a.m. on Saturday in Fort Myers, Fla., the spring training home of the Twins, an early morning hour on the first weekend of March Madness, when baseball news had slowed to a crawl and fresh rumors had not surfaced in hours. The substance was an opt-out-laden, three-year, $105.3-million deal between the Twins and Carlos Correa. Which means that, yes, the best free agent in baseball—originally expected to end up with a long-term deal or, at the very least, with a big-time contender—had chosen a quirky contract structure with a team no one saw coming.
In other words, this deal felt very much like something that would happen at 2 a.m. on a Saturday, meant to be processed either as a wild headline to close down a night or a bombshell to wake up to. Credit to Minnesota and Correa for making sure that it was so literally as well as spiritually. And it could be an ideal situation both for the team, which has telegraphed its desire to win right now, and for the shortstop, who can test the waters again in free agency as soon as next year.
The Twins have reportedly agreed to pay Correa $35.1 million each year for three years—with a player opt-out after each of the first two seasons. The structure means there’s a good chance he departs after just one year, if he stays free of injury this season and performs as he traditionally has when healthy. (And if those caveats don’t apply in 2022, they seem likely to in 2023, making it somewhat improbable that Correa sticks in Minnesota until the end of the contract in 2024.) But it’s a situation that could work out well for both sides.
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Let’s start with the circumstances for the Twins. They’re coming off a startlingly dreadful season: After back-to-back playoff appearances with a very solid core in 2019 and 2020, the bottom suddenly fell out from under them in 2021, with bad performance and bad health colliding to land them in last place in the AL Central. It was unexpected, and it also put them in a somewhat tricky position: Yes, they did trade some pieces at the deadline last year (José Berríos), but they didn’t get close to opening up a full rebuild. They would need to make some clear upgrades if they wanted to rebound and contend in 2022. But for a club that was not traditionally a big spender, with multiple areas of need to address, that seemed like a tall order for one offseason.
Yet they found a way to do just that. Back in November, Minnesota extended Byron Buxton, a savvy move at a reasonable cost to keep a player who can be one of the most exciting in the majors when healthy. After the lockout, the Twins jumped back into the offseason with a series of smart trades, including bolstering their rotation with Sonny Gray. They next picked up shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa from the Rangers and flipped him to the Yankees in a deal that brought them catcher Gary Sánchez and infielder Gio Urshela—and, crucially, allowed them to move third baseman Josh Donaldson, plus his salary. The $50 million owed to Donaldson was suddenly off the books. And within a few days, by adding Correa, the team showed that it was ready to use that newfound financial flexibility to actually stretch.
The Twins would never have realistically gone for a big-money, long-term deal for Correa. But at this point in the offseason, it seemed as if he was opening himself up to more options, including for the short term. (More on that below.) Which meant he suddenly made sense for the Twins: They were interested in complementing their smaller, shrewder moves with a big splash that would not have to come with a lengthy, uber-expensive commitment. This fit perfectly. Minnesota now has the best free agent in baseball. Correa, if healthy, will do quite a lot to help the Twins win right now. (If you needed the reminder: He’s coming off a 7.2 WAR season.) If he’s only in town for one year? It’s worth it. The Twins now have a chance to make a real impact in 2022, and there’s no single move they could have made to help their chances there as much as this one.
As for why it makes sense for Correa? There’s a reason FanGraphs’ initial contract projection for him was nine years and nearly $300 million and MLB Trade Rumors’ was 10 years and $320 million. A player of his caliber could easily command those numbers in the right market. But in a free-agent year crowded with middle infielders—several of whom signed before the lockout, taking potentially interested teams off the board early—it seemed he wasn’t getting the interest he may have once hoped for. A one-year deal could have been smart: He’d hope to repeat his stellar performance from last season and jump back into a different market next winter. But there’s risk involved there. That’s a lot of faith to place in a single year where injuries or slumps are not unfathomable. So a move like this makes more sense: three years with two opt-outs, giving him a chance to hop back into free agency as soon as it makes sense but with the security that he does not have to do so after one season. Correa, 27, could easily still get a big, long-term commitment after one or two years. This deal simply gives him a bridge to get there—and, in the meantime, he’ll still be the highest-paid infielder in baseball by average annual value.
The Twins still need another starting pitcher (or two). If they’re smart, they won’t stop here; Frankie Montas or (and?) Sean Manaea of the A’s seem like prime trade candidates for them. But it’s refreshing to see them going in as hard as they have at all. Their situation was one that many teams have seemed content to punt on in recent years—dial down, retool, try to come back to contention with cheaper, younger pieces in a few seasons. It’s a position that tends to lend itself to practical transactions during business hours rather than middle-of-the-night blockbusters. Yet the Twins have chosen the opposite path here, and baseball is better for it.
