Between 2003 and 2022 there have only been four men’s singles winners of Wimbledon. You need to go back to 2002 when Australian Lleyton Hewitt won the title to find a name other than the “big four” – Novak Djokovic, Roger Federer, Andy Murray or Rafael Nadal. But on Sunday 20-year-old Spaniard Carlos Alcaraz broke that pattern when he beat Djokovic in a five-set thriller to win the title.
It was a surprise win. The dominance of the top four players has led to an expectation that, at Grand Slams, one of them would end up on top. Within forensic psychology there is a cliché – “the best predictor of future behaviour is past behaviour.” Psychological research backs this phenomenon, whereby we expect the past to repeat itself.
I would argue that this excludes people that are going to do things for the very first time – Alcaraz’s Wimbledon win was his first grass court Grand Slam victory. Carlos Alcaraz was beaten by Djokovic at the French Open in June. He reported that it was overwhelming to play against his hero.
