For the first time in over 100 years, the Canadian military is modeling its response to a hypothetical U.S. invasion, as tensions rise between President Donald Trump’s administration and NATO allies, according to a new report.
The model outlines the Canadian Armed Forces’ multi-pronged strategy to counter a potential U.S. military incursion. It includes plans to use asymmetric tactics, drone warfare and requests for European backup, according to two senior Canadian officials who spoke to The Globe and Mail.
The model is purely theoretical and precautionary, with officials stressing that a U.S. invasion is unlikely to happen. Still, it illustrates the extent to which relations between the two nations — longstanding allies and important trading partners — have broken down over the past year. To this point, a poll taken this summer found most Canadians now view the U.S. as their country’s greatest threat.
Since taking office last January, Trump has repeatedly expressed his desire to acquire Canada, which he described on multiple occasions as “the 51st state.” And in recent weeks, he’s reportedly turned his attention back to Canada, fixating on the country’s “vulnerability” to foreign adversaries in its Arctic reaches.
At the same time, the 79-year-old president has made clear his desire to take control of Greenland, a territory of the Kingdom of Denmark, another NATO ally. The White House, which says it needs Greenland for purposes of national security, sees several options to achieve this goal, including the use of military force.
Trump’s overtures have alarmed NATO partners, including France and Germany, and led them to deploy troops to Greenland. Canadian officials are considering dispatching forces to the Arctic island as well.
“On Arctic sovereignty, we stand firmly with Greenland and Denmark and fully support their unique right to determine Greenland’s future,” Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said in Switzerland on Tuesday.
Last week, he committed to strengthening bonds with China and forging a “new world order” — underscoring the apparent decline of the U.S.-led system of alliances.
A White House spokesperson did not immediately respond to a request for comment from The Independent.
The Canadian military’s model anticipates that a U.S. invasion would begin in the south, with the Americans moving at lightning speed to overtake strategic assets.
The Canadian forces don’t have enough soldiers or equipment to repel a conventional attack, so they would rely on “unconventional warfare,” which would include sabotage, ambushes and drone warfare, The Globe and Mail reported.
One official said the model is inspired by the Muhajideen, a group of guerrilla fighters in Afghanistan who fought the Russians in the Soviet-Afghan War using hit-and-run tactics.
“The aim of such tactics would be to impose mass casualties on U.S. occupying forces,” the official said.
Should the U.S. attack, the Canadian government would likely call for aid from other nuclear powers, including France and the U.K.
“You know if you come after Canada, you are going to have the world coming after you, even more than Greenland. People do care about what happens to Canada, unlike Venezuela,” retired Major-General David Fraser, who led Canadian troops in Afghanistan, said. “You could actually see German ships and British planes in Canada to reinforce the country’s sovereignty.”
Still, one official said that relations between the military forces of Canada and the U.S. remain positive. This week, the two nations worked together on a NORAD exercise in Greenland.
And retired Lieutenant-General Mike Day, who led Canadian Special Forces Command, said it is “fanciful” to believe the Americans would launch an invasion of Canada.
Others, though, stressed that boosting Canadian defenses and drawing up plans would help deter the threat of invasion — even if it is a minimal one.
“The better Canada can embrace this approach to homeland defence,” University of Toronto political scientist Aisha Ahmad said, “the less likely all of these horrible scenarios that nobody wants will ever come to pass.”
Can Trump be removed under the 25th Amendment after threats to Greenland?
Keir Starmer: Trump’s Chagos deal U-turn is about pressuring UK over Greenland
Miliband admits ‘situation has changed’ between UK and US after Trump dispute
In full: Mark Carney’s Davos speech as he issues warning after Trump threats
‘All you have is fear’: Democrat tells Fox Host Sean Hannity
Trump’s Air Force One forced to return to Washington after electrical issue
