Can we predict genocide by listening to what leaders say? Research finds common threads

Serbian Communist Party leader Slobodan Milošević addresses a crowd in 1988. Patrick Hertzog/AFP via Getty Images

On the eve of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a speech. Several things stood out. He started by discussing the fundamental threat posed to Russia by “the West”.

This, he claimed, included the eastward expansion of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which he emphasised was becoming more dangerous, threatening Russian security.