One of the key findings of research into elections is that there is a close relationship between the popularity of party leaders and support for their parties in elections. The reason for this relates to how people make up their minds when voting. Many people consider issues or draw on their sense of attachment to a political party, but most look at the party leaders.
The leader personifies the party for many voters, particularly those who are confused about policies and don’t feel attached to any party. They use a simple rule of thumb: if they like a leader then they are inclined to vote for his or her party.
Colleagues and I explain this reasoning more fully in our new book, Brexit Britain. Faced with policy choices the consequences of which are difficult if not impossible to forecast, voters rely on their impressions of competing party leaders for assistance. This means that a good deal of voting is about who is in charge as much as about the policies advocated by a party.
